国泰君安期货所长早读-20250827

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the document. Core Views - The core capital goods orders in the US in July rebounded by 1.06%, the fastest growth in nearly three years, indicating that the basic demand of enterprises for equipment and expansion remains stable, which weakens market concerns about economic slowdown [7][40]. - The PX market is short - term oscillating and strengthening. It is recommended not to chase long unilaterally, and pay attention to the 11 - 1 positive spread position, buying PTA and shorting PX [8]. - The caustic soda market is currently suppressed by near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports. Although domestic demand is stable, if exports remain weak, the peak season performance may be affected [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metals Gold and Silver - Gold: After the JH meeting, Powell's dovish stance. The trend intensity is 1, showing a relatively neutral - to - positive outlook. The price of Comex gold 2510 rose by 1.00% to 3417.20, and London gold spot rose by 0.95% to 3369.82 [17][18][21]. - Silver: It is expected to reach the previous high. The trend intensity is 1. The price of Comex silver 2510 rose by 2.07% to 39.390, and London silver spot rose by 1.85% to 38.801 [17][18][21]. Copper - The price is firm due to the decrease in both domestic and foreign inventories. The trend intensity is 1. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,190 with a daily decline of 0.63%, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,847 with a 0.38% increase [23][25]. Zinc - It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22270 with a 0.56% decline, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2805.5 with a 1.39% increase [26][28]. Lead - The price is supported by the decrease in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16930 with a 0.50% increase, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 1992 with a 1.12% increase [29]. Tin - It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 1. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,930 with a 0.21% decline, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,845 with a 1.11% increase [31][37]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: Oscillating and strengthening. The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20715, and the LME aluminum 3M closed at 2639 [38]. - Alumina: The center of gravity is moving down. The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 3069 [38]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: Narrow - range oscillating. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,370 [41]. - Stainless steel: Short - term low - level oscillating. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,840 [41]. 2. Chemicals PX - Short - term oscillating and strengthening. The PXN spread is at a high level of 264 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread is 170.5 US dollars/ton. The start - up enthusiasm of existing devices has increased, and the demand from the polyester industry is gradually recovering [8]. Caustic Soda - Suppressed by near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports. As of August 26, there were still 114 warehouse receipts on the caustic soda 09 contract, and export signing has been poor recently [10]. Carbonate Lithium - The spot trading has improved slightly, and it is in an oscillating state. The price of the 2509 contract closed at 79,260 [47][48]. Polysilicon - Market sentiment has cooled down. Attention should be paid to the upstream production reduction expectations. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 0 [51][53]. 3. Building Materials and Energy Iron Ore - Oscillating repeatedly. The price of the iron ore 12601 contract closed at 776.5 with a 1.33% decline [55]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The market sentiment is fluctuating, and they are in a wide - range oscillation. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,113 with a 0.99% decline, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,367 with a 0.71% decline [59]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Both are in a wide - range oscillation. The ferrosilicon 2511 contract closed at 5656, and the silicomanganese 2511 contract closed at 5850 [62]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both are in a wide - range oscillation. The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1215.5 with a 4.6% increase, and the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1736 with a 3.4% increase [66]. Logs - Oscillating repeatedly. The 2509 contract of logs closed at 801.5 with a 0.2% decline [69].