尿素早评：关注逢低做多机会-20250827

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for urea futures. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level and its valuation is not high as upstream profits are relatively low. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old urea production facilities (about 20% of the facilities are over 20 years old and the current comprehensive operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity); on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, considering the easing of China - India relations. Therefore, it is advisable to focus on the opportunity to buy on dips for the 01 contract [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong closed at 1737 yuan/ton on August 26, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.46%) from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1777 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.67%); UR09 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. Spot Prices - In the domestic market, prices in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on August 26 compared to the previous day. The price in the Northeast dropped 20 yuan/ton (-1.14%) to 1730 yuan/ton [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 12 yuan/ton to -77 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread increased by 4 yuan/ton to -40 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on August 26 compared to the previous day [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest was 1749 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1727 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1742 yuan/ton. The 2601 contract had a trading volume of 219,820 lots [1].