黑色板块日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai's adjustment of the property market purchase - restriction policy led to a significant rebound in black - series commodities and real - estate stocks, but the market focus has shifted to verifying downstream actual demand. For steel products, although it's the consumption peak season, due to the real - estate market still being in the bottom - building process, there are concerns that future demand recovery may fall short of expectations. For iron ore, while there is room for an increase in steel mill's molten iron output after the military parade, the current output is relatively high and terminal demand is not optimistic, so the upward space is limited. The supply is at a high level, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [2][5] - For both steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coils) and iron ore, the recommended operation is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, wait for price rebounds, and then choose the opportunity to short - sell at high prices [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply and Demand Situation: Rebar production has decreased for the second consecutive week, with apparent demand turning from a decline to an increase. Factory inventories have increased for the third consecutive week, and social inventories have increased for the sixth consecutive week. The total output of the five major steel products has risen, total inventories have increased, and apparent demand has also increased. In the consumption peak season, apparent demand should gradually recover and total inventories are expected to decline, but due to the real - estate market situation, there are concerns about insufficient demand recovery [2] - Technical Analysis: After a short - term rebound with position reduction, rebar and hot - rolled coils have seen an increase in positions and a decline in prices, indicating possible short - term pressure [2] - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, short - sell on short - term after rebounds, and avoid chasing up or selling down [2] - Data Details: See Table 1 in the report, including price changes of futures and spot prices, basis and spread, production, inventory, apparent demand, etc. For example, the rebar main contract closing price is 3113 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day; the national building materials steel mill rebar production is 214.65 tons, down 2.63% from the previous week; the five - major varieties social inventory is 1017.21 tons, up 2.66% from the previous week [3] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply and Demand Situation: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the profit margin has回调, possibly due to the sharp increase in coke prices. The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is at a relatively high level, with limited upward space. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the arrival volume is expected to increase. The port inventory shows signs of stabilizing, and there is a possibility of inventory increase during the consumption peak season [5] - Technical Analysis: The 01 contract fluctuates repeatedly near the middle track of the daily K - line Bollinger Band, with the overall Bollinger Band opening narrowing, and the probability of medium - term oscillation is high, with limited short - term upward space [5] - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for price rebounds, and then choose the opportunity to short - sell at high prices [5] - Data Details: See Table 2 in the report, including price changes of futures and spot prices, basis and spread, shipment, arrival volume, inventory, etc. For example, the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price is 776.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from the previous day; the Australian iron ore shipment is 1719 tons, up 17.93% from the previous week; the port inventory is 13845.2 tons, up 0.19% from the previous week [5] 3.3 Industry News - The US Department of Commerce issued affirmative rulings on anti - dumping and counter - vailing duties against 10 countries and regions for corrosion - resistant steel products, involving 2.9 billion US dollars of imported products [7] - In Yulin on August 26, state - owned large mines were operating normally, some private coal mines were shut down, and most coal mine inventories were at a medium level. The terminal inventory is mostly high, mainly for replenishing stocks as needed. Yulin coal prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [7] - In July, the output of medium - thick plate rolling mills, hot - continuous rolling mills, and cold - continuous rolling mills of key statistical enterprises increased year - on - year [7] - Currently, Tangshan's steel section mills using billets are implementing production restrictions, with low operating rates and capacity utilization rates, and transportation is also restricted. Factory inventories are sufficient, but overall sales are weak, and market sentiment is mixed [8]