中辉有色观点-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Short - term, it's recommended to wait and see as the upward space is limited in the short term, but it should be strategically allocated in the long term due to factors like global monetary easing, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical restructuring [1]. - Silver: It's recommended to buy on rebounds. Although the short - term market contradictions are not obvious, the upward trend remains unchanged in the medium and long term due to factors such as fiscal and monetary policies in the US and strong re - industrialization demand [1]. - Copper: It's recommended to hold long positions. With the approaching of the peak season, short - term long positions should be held, and it's bullish in the long term as it's an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game [1][7]. - Zinc: It's recommended to wait and see in the short term and sell on rebounds in the long term as the supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing [1][10]. - Lead: The price rebound is under pressure due to factors such as the resumption of primary lead production and the losses of secondary lead enterprises [1]. - Tin: The price shows a short - term rebound trend due to factors like the repeated resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the decline in the smelting industry's start - up rate [1]. - Aluminum: The price shows a short - term rebound trend due to a favorable policy environment and the slight increase in inventory in consumption areas [1]. - Nickel: The price shows a short - term rebound trend due to factors such as stable overseas nickel ore prices and the slight reduction of stainless steel inventory [1]. - Industrial silicon: It mainly moves in a range, and the price is under pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the slow resumption of production of leading enterprises [1]. - Polysilicon: It's cautiously bullish. Although the production is expected to increase in September, enterprises will limit sales, and the spot price may rise further [1]. - Lithium carbonate: It's cautiously bullish. The supply and demand are both strong, and there is still a de - stocking expectation in September [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: US data is mixed, and the Fed's independence is questioned, but there is a lack of obvious major drivers for gold. Geopolitical tensions are easing, limiting gold market fluctuations [3]. - Basic Logic: US data shows both positive and negative aspects; the "Cook incident" impacts the Fed's independence; geopolitical tensions are subsiding. In the short term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low, while in the long term, gold may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold has support around 770 in the short term, and attention should be paid to the performance at the recent high of 794. Silver has support at 9100 in the short term. The long - term trend of gold and silver is upward [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level with its center of gravity moving up [6]. - Industrial Logic: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally. Currently in the off - season, but demand will pick up with the approaching of the peak season. The annual copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, it's recommended to hold existing long positions and wait for opportunities to buy on dips. In the long term, it's bullish on copper. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai copper and London copper [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds, but冲高回落 during the session [9]. - Industrial Logic: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025, and smelter enthusiasm is high. On the demand side, galvanized enterprise start - up rates are expected to decline due to factors such as tariff policies and the off - season [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, it's recommended to wait and see. In the long term, sell on rebounds. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai zinc and London zinc [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices continue to rebound, while alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas macro - environment has a strong interest - rate cut expectation, and the cost has decreased. The inventory has increased slightly. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short term [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: It's recommended to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises and the price range of Shanghai aluminum [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebound, and stainless steel rebounds from a low level [16]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas macro - sentiment is positive. The supply of refined nickel is in surplus, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. Stainless steel inventory has decreased, but the off - season pressure remains [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: It's recommended to take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to downstream inventory changes and the price range of nickel [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opens low and goes low, with a reduction in positions and a slight decline [20]. - Industrial Logic: The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is picking up with the approaching of the peak season. The total inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and there is still a de - stocking expectation [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the price range of [78200 - 81000] [22].