中辉期货豆粕日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different agricultural products have varying market outlooks and investment strategies. For soymeal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil, the short - term market trends are different, with soymeal and rapeseed meal in short - term adjustment phases, while palm oil has a short - term bullish outlook. Cotton, dates, and live pigs also have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding investment suggestions[2]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, up 0.94% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3089.71 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day[4]. - Inventory Situation: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.80 million tons. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 682.53 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.13 million tons. The soymeal inventory was 105.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.86 million tons[5]. - Market Outlook: There is a short - term adjustment due to the increase in the weekly crop good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans and the week - on - week increase in soymeal inventory. However, there are short - term long opportunities after stabilization, but the overall upside space is limited[2][5]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2547 yuan/ton, up 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2666.84 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day[6]. - Inventory Situation: As of August 22, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 15.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8 million tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions decreased by 2.14 million tons from the previous week[6]. - Market Outlook: New - crop Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage. The high inventory and improved China - Australia trade have cooled market speculation. The August production forecast of Canadian rapeseed has been significantly increased, which is bearish. It is in a short - term adjustment phase, and cautious bullish sentiment is advised. Wait for short - term stabilization before short - term participation[2][7]. Palm Oil - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9582 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The national average price was 9635 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day[8]. - Inventory and Export Information: As of August 22, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52 million tons. The export data from August 1 - 20 in Malaysia was good[9]. - Market Outlook: It is in a high - level consolidation phase as it approaches the end - of - August Malaysian palm oil inventory forecast. Be cautious about chasing long this week. However, in the context of the biodiesel consumption policy, the trend operation should be based on the idea of buying on dips[2][9]. Cotton - Price Information: The domestic spot price rose 0.62% to 15331 yuan/ton, and the ICE cotton main contract fell 0.97% to 66.67 cents/pound[12]. - Supply and Demand Situation: Internationally, the drought - free rate in the US cotton - growing area has slowed down, and the excellent - to - good rate has decreased slightly. In Brazil, the total cotton production is expected to be slightly reduced. Domestically, new cotton is entering the boll - opening stage, and the import volume in July increased slightly. The commercial inventory has decreased, and the demand has improved marginally[12][13]. - Market Outlook: Although the short - term soil moisture of US cotton has improved, which is bearish, the international cotton price is undervalued. Domestically, there is a short - term supply shortage before new cotton is launched, and there is a possibility of local small - scale抢购. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and consider the long - short rhythm change in September[2][14]. Dates - Price Information: The main contract of dates, CJ2601, closed at 11410 yuan/ton, up 0.13%[16]. - Supply and Demand Situation: The main production areas are in the fruit - swelling stage. The estimated new - season production is expected to decrease, but the reduction is less than that in 2023. The inventory is being depleted at a moderate pace, and the market trading atmosphere is average[16]. - Market Outlook: The 2025/26 annual production in the southern Xinjiang date market is expected to be between 50 - 58 million tons, with a definite reduction. There may be quality speculation due to increased rainfall in some areas, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. It is recommended to buy on dips[2][16]. Live Pigs - Price Information: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, fell 0.47% to 13860 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price rose 0.07% to 13830 yuan/ton[18]. - Supply and Demand Situation: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in August has increased. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to July has increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long term, the number of fertile sows has decreased slightly. The demand is expected to improve marginally in the future 1 - 2 months[18]. - Market Outlook: The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is smooth, and the short - term pressure on the spot end remains. The medium - and long - term inventory scale is high, but the incremental space is shrinking. It is not recommended to short blindly in the short term. Consider establishing long positions in far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse - spread operations around strong contracts[2][19].