铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook has intensified the threat to the Fed's independence; he plans to impose high - tariffs on furniture and restrict exports and impose tariffs on foreign digital taxes. France faces political turmoil, with the government potentially facing reshuffle or early elections. The dollar index fell, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield declined, and gold prices rose [2]. - Domestically, the State Council issued an opinion on the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. A - shares closed down with shrinking volume, and the bond market is expected to recover as stock market sentiment may peak [3]. - For precious metals, Trump's dismissal of Cook has boosted the price of gold due to increased concerns about the Fed's independence and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be volatile and strong [4][5]. - For copper, Trump's move to dismiss Cook has weakened the dollar index. With high expectations of preventive rate cuts and cost support, copper prices will be volatile and strong in the short term [6][7]. - For aluminum, despite the dismissal of Cook and the resulting impact on the dollar index, stable supply and expected consumption in the peak season will keep aluminum prices volatile and favorable [8]. - For alumina, after the digestion of previous macro - benefits, with stable production capacity and increased inventory, alumina prices will be volatile and weak, but cost and policy expectations will limit the downside [9]. - For zinc, Trump's action and French political turmoil have dampened market risk appetite. Although domestic refinery maintenance will relieve supply pressure, consumption has not improved, and zinc prices will be volatile in the short term [10]. - For lead, due to refinery maintenance and low - load operation, lead prices have moved up, but lack of consumption improvement and resistance at integer levels will limit the upside [11][12][13]. - For tin, with weak supply and demand, although there was a technical breakthrough, weak market risk appetite will limit the upside of tin prices [14]. - For lithium carbonate, with resource disturbances and expected production increases overseas, and uncertain demand, lithium prices will be volatile [15][16]. - For nickel, under the Fed's dovish expectations, nickel prices have moved up at night, but with lackluster spot markets and limited fundamental support, the upside is limited [17][18]. - For crude oil, due to geopolitical risks and concerns about OPEC +'s production increase plan, oil prices will be volatile [19]. - For steel products, with shrinking trade volume, weak demand for rebar, and电炉 steel mills in the red, steel prices will test cost support and be volatile [20]. - For iron ore, with a slight decline in inventory, stable supply, and resilient demand, iron ore prices will be volatile [21]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, with an enhanced expectation of a U.S. soybean harvest and sufficient domestic supply in the short term, soybean meal prices will be range - bound [22]. - For palm oil, due to Trump's actions, geopolitical factors, and a decline in Malaysian palm oil production in August, palm oil prices will be volatile and adjust [23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook has caused a legal battle, threatening the Fed's independence. He also announced trade agreements with Europe, Japan, and South Korea and plans to impose high - tariffs on furniture. France's budget - cutting plan has been opposed, leading to a decline in stocks and bonds. The dollar index fell to 98.2, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.26%, and gold and copper prices rose while oil prices fell by more than 2% [2]. - Domestic: The State Council issued an opinion on the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. A - shares closed down with shrinking volume, and the bond market is expected to recover as stock market sentiment may peak [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.02% to $38.70 per ounce. Trump's dismissal of Cook has increased concerns about the Fed's independence and expectations of a rate cut, driving investors to gold [4]. - Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be volatile and strong, waiting for the release of U.S. PCE data [5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper's main contract was volatile and strong. The spot market had average trading volume, and the LME inventory remained at 155,000 tons. Trump's dismissal of Cook has weakened the dollar index, and there are high expectations of preventive rate cuts [6]. - With cost support from production cuts by Codelco and other factors, copper prices will be volatile and strong in the short term [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,705 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The LME closed at $2,638.5 per ton, up 0.63%. Trump's dismissal of Cook has affected the dollar index, and with stable supply and expected consumption in the peak season, aluminum prices will be volatile and favorable [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 3,069 yuan/ton, down 3.49%. After the digestion of previous macro - benefits, with stable production capacity and increased inventory, alumina prices will be volatile and weak, but cost and policy expectations will limit the downside [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc's main contract was volatile and weak during the day and slightly moved up at night. Global zinc market supply was in surplus from January to June 2025. Trump's action and French political turmoil have dampened market risk appetite, and although domestic refinery maintenance will relieve supply pressure, consumption has not improved, and zinc prices will be volatile in the short term [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead's main contract was volatile and strong during the day and gave back some gains at night. Global lead market supply was in surplus from January to June 2025. Due to refinery maintenance and low - load operation, lead prices have moved up, but lack of consumption improvement and resistance at integer levels will limit the upside [11][12][13]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin's main contract was narrowly volatile during the day and closed up at night. With weak supply and demand, although there was a technical breakthrough, weak market risk appetite will limit the upside of tin prices [14]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate was volatile and weak. With resource disturbances and expected production increases overseas, and uncertain demand, lithium prices will be volatile [15][16]. 3.10 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were volatile and rose significantly at night. With the Fed's dovish expectations, nickel prices have moved up at night, but with lackluster spot markets and limited fundamental support, the upside is limited [17][18]. 3.11 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil was volatile and weak. Geopolitical risks and concerns about OPEC +'s production increase plan will keep oil prices volatile [19]. 3.12 Steel Products - On Tuesday, steel futures were volatile and weak. With shrinking trade volume, weak demand for rebar, and电炉 steel mills in the red, steel prices will test cost support and be volatile [20]. 3.13 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures were volatile and adjusted. With a slight decline in inventory, stable supply, and resilient demand, iron ore prices will be volatile [21]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures closed down. With an enhanced expectation of a U.S. soybean harvest and sufficient domestic supply in the short term, soybean meal prices will be range - bound [22]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures closed down. High - frequency data showed a decline in Malaysian palm oil production from August 1 - 25. With Trump's actions and geopolitical factors, palm oil prices will be volatile and adjust [23][24].