合成橡胶：基本面偏中性，跟随宏观运行

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][3] 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term outlook is bullish, while medium - term is range - bound. In the short run, the overall macro sentiment is positive, with the equity market being excited before the parade, driving commodities to perform strongly. The rubber sector, with a neutral fundamental situation, follows the commodity index. Also, although the anti - involution policy is not as aggressive in the short term, it has a long - term policy tone, and the expectations of "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization support the overall valuation of commodities. In the medium term, as the price increase is mainly speculative and there is no obvious fundamental driver, the futures price has gradually become at a premium to the spot price. After the commodity sector returns to fundamental trading, the futures price is expected to correct to the fundamental valuation range [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract) on August 27, 2025, the daily closing price was 11,845 yuan/ton (down 165 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 112,447 lots (down 42,957 lots), the open interest was 43,120 lots (down 3,585 lots), and the turnover was 673.629 million yuan (down 253.24 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was 155 yuan (up 265 yuan), the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 was - 15 yuan (up 10 yuan). The prices of butadiene in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) increased by 50 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) was 12,000 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan), the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) increased by 100 yuan and 150 yuan respectively, and the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong mainstream markets increased by 50 yuan [1] - Fundamental Indicators: The butadiene rubber operating rate was 76.1855% (up 0.44% from the previous day), the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 12,285 yuan/ton (up 103 yuan), and the butadiene rubber profit was - 185 yuan/ton (up 97 yuan) [1] - Inventory Situation: As of August 20, 2025 (week 34), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons or 0.56%. In this period, most butadiene rubber plants that had been under maintenance restarted, domestic production recovered, the mainstream supply price rose further under the influence of capital speculation and the natural rubber market, but the slow terminal sales due to strong downstream price - pressing sentiment led to a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]