Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Domestically, fiscal spending is still strong, especially government - funded expenditures in June and July. Despite the marginal decline in economic growth, there is no need for excessive pessimism as existing policies are supporting the economy, and the economic cycle has shown marginal improvement. The possibility of large - scale economic stimulus measures has decreased, and real - estate demand continues to weaken with limited effects from demand - side policies [2]. - Overseas, Powell's policy stance is seen as dovish, and the August non - farm payrolls report and price index will be key indicators for policy - shift timing. Trump's attempt to fire a Fed governor challenges the Fed's independence but has not caused a major impact so far [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the market has cooled down. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1621 on the previous trading day, down 104 basis points, and the central parity rate was 7.1188, down 27 basis points [2]. - In the stock market, the index is expected to continue adjustment but with limited amplitude, and the overall upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US and external trade relations [4]. - For treasury bonds, the rebound should be viewed with caution. The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw, and the short - term may provide conditions for the bond market to stabilize and rebound, but the rebound space is limited [5]. - In the shipping market, MSK's new weekly opening quotes for European routes are lower than the previous values, and the EC is likely to continue to fluctuate or decline [7]. - For precious metals, gold and silver may be bullish in the medium - to - long - term. London gold and silver may remain strong this week, and it is recommended to buy on dips [8][11]. - In the copper market, the copper price declined slightly due to the rebound of the US dollar index. The negative correlation between copper price and the US dollar index is obvious [12][13]. - For aluminum and related products, aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina is expected to be volatile and bearish, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [14][16]. - In the zinc market, the zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, and a sell - overseas - buy - domestic strategy can be considered [17]. - For nickel and stainless steel, they are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in September and October [18]. - In the tin market, the tin price is expected to be mainly volatile, and the decline in social inventory may provide upward momentum [19]. - For lithium carbonate, the market sentiment has subsided, but expectations still exist. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream production schedules in September [20]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see or adopt a volatile trading strategy. Industrial silicon's short - term trading range is 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon's is 50000 - 53000 yuan/ton [22][23]. - In the steel market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be volatile and bearish, and the market has become "desensitized" to positive news [24]. - For iron ore, the market sentiment has declined, and the price may fall back. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate decision in September [25]. - For coking coal and coke, they are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term, and it is not recommended to short them before the peak - season demand is verified [27]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, it is recommended to try to go long at the 60 - day moving average [28]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to be neutral and bearish in the future, and attention should be paid to downward risks [31]. - For LPG, the domestic market is volatile, and the overseas propane market is affected by multiple factors [33]. - For PTA - PX, it is recommended to short the processing margin when it is high and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage when the price is high [36]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to go long on dips and use options for hedging in the medium - to - long - term [37]. - For methanol, it is recommended to sell put options and hold a small number of long positions, and observe port提货情况 [39]. - For PP, it is expected to be in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to demand and cost changes [41]. - For PE, it is expected to be bullish in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the actual progress of downstream demand recovery [44]. - For PVC, it is recommended to short it, as the supply - side clearance is difficult to achieve [45]. - For pure benzene and styrene, short - term unilateral shorting of styrene should be cautious, and attention should be paid to the peak - season destocking [47][48]. - For fuel oil, the price is under downward pressure due to sufficient supply [49]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to go long as the valuation is low and the upward drive exists [50]. - For asphalt, it is in a weak - volatile state and mainly follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [51]. - For rubber and 20 - number rubber, the price has risen and then fallen with an upward - moving center of gravity, and attention should be paid to supply, inventory, and macro - data [52][54]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Fed's independence is challenged as Trump tries to fire a governor, and the governor will sue. Global trade tensions are increasing, with Trump threatening tariffs on multiple countries [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1621 on the previous trading day, down 104 basis points, and the central parity rate was 7.1188, down 27 basis points. The market has cooled down [2]. Stock Index - The stock index adjusted with reduced trading volume. The Fed's positive impact has been priced in, and the adjustment is expected to continue but with limited amplitude [4]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rebounded, but the rebound space is limited. The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Shipping - MSK's new weekly opening quotes for European routes are lower than the previous values, and the EC is likely to continue to fluctuate or decline [7]. Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Gold rose and silver was volatile. The Fed's independence is challenged, which may be beneficial to precious metals. The recommended trading strategy is to buy on dips [8][11]. Copper - The copper price declined slightly due to the rebound of the US dollar index. The negative correlation between copper price and the US dollar index is obvious [12][13]. Aluminum and Related Products - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina is expected to be volatile and bearish, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [14][16]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term, and a sell - overseas - buy - domestic strategy can be considered [17]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - They are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in September and October [18]. Tin - The tin price is expected to be mainly volatile, and the decline in social inventory may provide upward momentum [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment has subsided, but expectations still exist. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream production schedules in September [20]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - It is recommended to wait and see or adopt a volatile trading strategy. Industrial silicon's short - term trading range is 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton, and polysilicon's is 50000 - 53000 yuan/ton [22][23]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils: The market is "desensitized" to positive news and is expected to be volatile and bearish [24]. - Iron Ore: The market sentiment has declined, and the price may fall back. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate decision in September [25]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term, and it is not recommended to short them before the peak - season demand is verified [27]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: It is recommended to try to go long at the 60 - day moving average [28]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The price has fallen, and it is expected to be neutral and bearish in the future, with attention to downward risks [31]. - LPG: The domestic market is volatile, and the overseas propane market is affected by multiple factors [33]. - PTA - PX: It is recommended to short the processing margin when it is high and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage when the price is high [36]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: It is recommended to go long on dips and use options for hedging in the medium - to - long - term [37]. - Methanol: It is recommended to sell put options and hold a small number of long positions, and observe port提货情况 [39]. - PP: It is expected to be in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to demand and cost changes [41]. - PE: It is expected to be bullish in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the actual progress of downstream demand recovery [44]. - PVC: It is recommended to short it, as the supply - side clearance is difficult to achieve [45]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Short - term unilateral shorting of styrene should be cautious, and attention should be paid to the peak - season destocking [47][48]. - Fuel Oil: The price is under downward pressure due to sufficient supply [49]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is recommended to go long as the valuation is low and the upward drive exists [50]. - Asphalt: It is in a weak - volatile state and mainly follows cost fluctuations in the short - term [51]. - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: The price has risen and then fallen with an upward - moving center of gravity, and attention should be paid to supply, inventory, and macro - data [52][54].
金融期货早评-20250827
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-27 03:01