甲醇：短期偏弱，中期震荡格局

Group 1: Report's Overall View - The investment outlook for the methanol industry is short - term weakness and medium - term oscillation [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Market - The closing price of methanol's main contract (01 contract) was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,413 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the trading volume was 373,944 lots, and the open interest was 710,322 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,466 tons, down 100 tons; the turnover was 902.159 million yuan, down 211.856 million yuan [2] - The basis was - 123, up 4; the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 123, down 7 [2] Spot Market - The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the Shandong price was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Group 3: Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2167.67, down 6.18. The Taicang spot price was 2272, down 25, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2080, down 2.5. Among 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 13 cities saw price drops ranging from 2.5 to 90 yuan/ton [3] - The domestic methanol market in most regions showed a weak performance. Only in some parts of Shanxi, due to supply contraction, the auction was concluded at a premium. The sharp decline in futures prices suppressed market sentiment, traditional downstream buyers pressured prices, and traders were actively reporting volumes [3] - Due to a large - scale event in early September and downstream rigid demand, the impact of freight rate increases on the upstream and downstream should be watched out for. Also, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of some methanol plants in the production areas and the impact of low - priced goods from Xinjiang. The port market remained weak, and the basis continued to weaken [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak outlook (the range of trend intensity is integers in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish) [6]