白糖：维持区间整理思维

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an interval consolidation mindset for sugar [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market has complex fundamentals with various factors influencing supply and demand both domestically and internationally, and currently shows a neutral trend [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 16.42 cents per pound with a year - on - year increase of 0.02; the mainstream spot price is 5980 yuan per ton with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5632 yuan per ton, down 56 yuan year - on - year. The 91 spread is 46 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan year - on - year; the 15 spread is 33 yuan per ton, down 9 yuan year - on - year; the mainstream spot basis is 348 yuan per ton, up 56 yuan year - on - year [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation has weakened periodically. Brazil's central - southern region accelerated the sugarcane crushing progress in July, and its sugar exports in June reached 3.36 million tons, a 5% year - on - year increase. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1] 3.3 Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a cumulative sugar sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of July, the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2] 3.4 International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously 4.88 million tons). As of August 1 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 8.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 19.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.06%, a year - on - year increase of 2.93 percentage points. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, an increase of 5.4 million tons. OCSB data shows that Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3] 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]