工业硅：弱势震荡格局，多晶硅：市场情绪降温，关注上游减产预期

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View The report focuses on the polycrystalline silicon market, where market sentiment is cooling, and it suggests paying attention to the upstream production cut expectations. It also provides detailed fundamental data on industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, as well as macro and industry news [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For industrial silicon, the Si2511 contract has a closing price of 8,515 yuan/ton (down 160 yuan from T - 1), a trading volume of 450,290 lots (down 25,321 lots from T - 1), and an open interest of 281,839 lots (down 7,286 lots from T - 1). For polycrystalline silicon, the PS2511 contract has a closing price of 50,985 yuan/ton (down 595 yuan from T - 1), a trading volume of 265,820 lots (down 94,702 lots from T - 1), and an open interest of 137,478 lots (up 677 lots from T - 1) [1]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Yunnan Si4210 is 9,750 yuan/ton. The polycrystalline silicon - N - type re - feedstock price is 49,000 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon has different spot premiums or discounts against different benchmarks [1]. - Profit and Inventory: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are negative, with - 2,626 yuan/ton and - 3,321 yuan/ton respectively. The industrial silicon social inventory is 54.3 million tons, and the enterprise inventory is 17.5 million tons. The polycrystalline silicon factory inventory is 24.9 million tons [1]. - Raw Material Costs: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, and trichlorosilane are provided, with some showing no change and others having slight fluctuations [1]. - Downstream Product Prices and Profits: The prices of downstream products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and EVA are presented, along with the profits of polycrystalline silicon enterprises, DMC enterprises, and recycled aluminum enterprises [1]. b. Macro and Industry News The US government proposed to include copper, silicon, silver, etc. in the 2025 critical minerals list. The US Geological Survey published a draft list of 54 minerals and will solicit public comments within 30 days. Six minerals are newly proposed to be added, and arsenic and tellurium are suggested to be removed [2]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook, while the trend intensity of polycrystalline silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].