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棕榈油:基本面暂无新驱动,等待回调,豆油:四季度缺豆交易暂缓,震荡整理
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-27 03:02

Report Summary Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: The fundamental situation has no new driving forces, and it is waiting for a pullback [1]. - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortages in the fourth quarter has暂缓, and it is in a range - bound consolidation [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 9,424 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change, and night - trading was 9,488 yuan/ton with a 0.68% change; soybean oil's day - trading was 8,536 yuan/ton (0.00% change) and night - trading was 8,402 yuan/ton (- 1.57% change); rapeseed oil's day - trading was 9,941 yuan/ton (- 0.57% change) and night - trading was 9,810 yuan/ton (- 1.32% change); Malaysian palm oil's day - trading was 4,470 ringgit/ton (- 0.51% change) and night - trading was 4,451 ringgit/ton (- 0.43% change); CBOT soybean oil was 53.46 cents/pound (- 2.57% change) [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil's trading volume was 29,423 lots (- 7,102 change) and open interest was 31,104 lots (- 11,004 change); soybean oil's trading volume was 25,058 lots (- 10,177 change) and open interest was 37,839 lots (- 14,776 change); rapeseed oil's trading volume was 12,749 lots (- 1,539 change) and open interest was 18,022 lots (- 6,367 change) [2]. - Spot Prices: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,470 yuan/ton (- 150 change); first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,850 yuan/ton (+ 130 change); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,950 yuan/ton (+ 40 change); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,110 dollars/ton (- 5 change) [2]. - Basis: Palm oil in Guangdong was 46 yuan/ton; soybean oil in Guangdong was 314 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9 yuan/ton [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 321 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 1,044 yuan/ton; palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 76 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 80 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 120 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 3.26% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and production decreased by 1.21% month - on - month [3]. - Tax Exemption in Malaysia: Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities is seeking to exempt crude and refined palm kernel oil from the sales and service tax (SST). Currently, these two products face a 5% special tax [5]. - Indonesian Palm Oil Tariff: The US has agreed in principle to exclude Indonesian palm oil, cocoa, and rubber from the 19% tariff, but the final agreement has no set schedule [5]. - Indian Vegetable Oil Tax: The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers' Association (IVPA) urges the government to cancel the tax credit refund restrictions implemented since July 2022 [6]. - Pakistani Soybean Purchase: Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans from US exporters, with a total value of about 500 million dollars [6]. - Brazilian Soybean Regulations: A Brazilian federal judge has temporarily suspended a decision by the country's antitrust regulator regarding the "Amazon soybean ban" [7]. - Brazilian Soybean Exports: Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.13 million tons [7]. - Soybean Crushing Profit in Brazil: In Mato Grosso from August 18 - 22, the soybean crushing profit was 387.05 reais/ton [7]. - EU Oil Imports: As of August 24, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 350,000 tons, soybeans were 1.96 million tons, and rapeseed was 390,000 tons, all lower than last year [8]. - Russian Sunflower Oil Tax: Russia will resume export tariffs on sunflower oil and its by - products from September [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [9].