对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套，PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套，MEG：趋势偏强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Bullish, suggesting a long spread strategy (11 - 1) and a long PTA short PX (11 contract) strategy [1][6] - PTA: Bullish on basis and calendar spread, suggesting a long spread strategy (10/11 - 1) and a long PTA short PX (11 contract) strategy [1][6] - MEG: Bullish in the short - term, suggesting a 9 - 1 long spread strategy and a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [1][7] 2. Core Views - PX is expected to be short - term bullish due to increased开工 from high profits and upcoming PTA demand, but avoid chasing long positions on the single - side. Instead, focus on spread strategies [6] - PTA should not be chased long on the single - side. Hold basis and calendar spread long positions and consider a long PTA short PX (11 contract) strategy, as supply is adjusted by new production and maintenance while demand is seasonally improving [6] - MEG is short - term bullish with a 9 - 1 long spread strategy, but faces supply pressure above 4600. Consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: Naphtha prices rose slightly. On the 26th, PX prices increased, with 10 - month and 11 - month negotiations but no deals. The PX valuation on the 26th was 864 USD/ton, up 5 USD from the 25th [3] - PTA: A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China started scheduled maintenance on the 26th, expected to restart in early September [3] - MEG: From August 25th to 31st, the planned arrival at major ports is about 44,000 tons [3] - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on the 26th were weak, with an average sales rate of about 50% as of 3:30 pm [3] - Spun - bonded staple fiber: Sales were weak on the 26th, with an average sales rate of 40% as of 3:00 pm [5] Price and Spread Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing | Previous Closing | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX | 6994 | 6970 | 0.34% | PX9 - 1 | 80 | 122 | - 42 | | PTA | 4870 | 8 | 0.16% | PTA9 - 1 | - 40 | - 34 | - 6 | | MEG | 4490 | - 19 | - 0.42% | MEG9 - 1 | - 50 | - 59 | 9 | | PF | 6622 | 26 | 0.39% | PF9 - 1 | - 90 | - 90 | 0 | | SC | 496.1 | 3.2 | 0.65% | SC9 - 10 | - 7.3 | - 7.3 | 0 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China | 864 | 859 | 5 | | PTA East China | 4865 | 4860 | 5 | | MEG | 4552 | 4550 | 2 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 600 | 592.5 | 7.5 | | Dated Brent | 67.44 | 68.23 | - 0.79 | | Spot Processing Margin | Yesterday's Price | Previous Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha | 270.33 | 269.17 | 1.16 | | PTA | 248.5 | 235.4 | 13.1 | | Staple Fiber | 102.62 | 86.27 | 16.36 | | Bottle Chip | - 88.83 | - 41.2 | - 47.62 | | MOPJ - Dubai Crude | - 6.01 | - 6.01 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG all have a trend intensity of 1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5] Views and Suggestions - PX: Short - term bullish, avoid single - side long chasing, focus on 11 - 1 long spread and long PTA short PX (11 contract) [6] - PTA: Avoid single - side long chasing, hold basis and calendar spread long positions, consider long PTA short PX (11 contract) [6] - MEG: Short - term bullish, 9 - 1 long spread, face pressure above 4600, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread [7]