主要品种策略早餐-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides investment analysis and strategies for various financial and commodity futures and options, including intraday and mid - term views, reference strategies, and core logics for each product [1][2][5]. - For financial futures, the stock index futures are expected to have high - level sideways consolidation and index differentiation in the short - term, with a wide - range shock in the medium - term. The treasury bond futures are expected to continue to rebound with long - term bonds being strong in the short - term and remain strong in the medium - term [1][2]. - For commodity futures, different sectors such as metals, black and building materials, livestock and soft commodities, and energy and chemicals have different trends and influencing factors. For example, copper in the metal sector is affected by factors like Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, supply and demand, and inventory [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - Varieties: IF, IH, IC, IM - Intraday View: High - level sideways consolidation, index differentiation [1] - Mid - term View: Wide - range shock - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions in IF2509 cautiously and hold IO - 4300 - P put options for protection - Core Logic: Market trading volume has decreased but remains at a high level. Margin trading balance is stable and approaching 2.2 trillion yuan. Leverage funds continue to enter the market, and the trading sentiment of margin trading funds is heating up. The policy side forms multiple positive overlays, providing good support for the market [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Varieties: TS, TF, T, TL - Intraday View: Rebound continues, long - term bonds are strong - Mid - term View: Strong - Reference Strategy: Hold long positions in TL2512 - Core Logic: The central bank's open - market operations turn to net withdrawal, but the previous monthly MLF renewal achieved a large - scale net injection. The inter - bank market liquidity remains abundant. The stock - bond seesaw effect may be further desensitized, and the economic recovery is slow, indicating that the bond market is difficult to switch from bull to bear [2][3]. Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - Intraday View: Fluctuate within the range of 79290 - 80100 (also 78500 - 80000 in another part) [5][51] - Mid - term View: Fluctuate within the range of 60000 - 90000 - Reference Strategy: Adopt an oscillating operation idea - Core Logic: The Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation is high. Supply shows a tightening trend in some aspects, and demand is positive in some areas like China's power grid investment and global energy - storage battery shipments. However, the slowdown in US import demand may weaken the support for copper prices [6][7][51]. - Industrial Silicon - Intraday View: Run strongly, within the range of 8600 - 8900 (also 8500 - 8800 in another part) [8][54] - Mid - term View: Run strongly, within the range of 8500 - 9500 - Reference Strategy: Adopt a long - biased approach - Core Logic: Supply decreased year - on - year in July. Demand also decreased year - on - year in June. The inventory is at a high level in the past 7 years, but the "Industrial Silicon Industry Kunming Initiative" is expected to boost the price [8][9][54]. - Polysilicon - Intraday View: Run strongly, within the range of 50,000 - 53,000 - Mid - term View: Run strongly, within the range of 45,000 - 65,000 - Reference Strategy: Adopt a long - biased approach - Core Logic: Supply decreased year - on - year in June. Demand decreased year - on - year in July. The inventory shows obvious oversupply, but the "anti - involution" expectation boosts the price [10][11][12]. - Aluminum - Intraday View: Run at a high level, within the range of 20600 - 20900 - Mid - term View: Run strongly, within the range of 19500 - 21000 - Reference Strategy: Sell AL2510 - P - 19300 - Core Logic: The supply - side reform in 2017 set a cap on China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the current production capacity increase space is limited. The social inventory is at the second - lowest level in the past 5 years, and the automobile market is performing well, which is beneficial to the aluminum price [13][14][59]. - Lithium Carbonate - Intraday View: Wide - range fluctuation, within the range of 75,000 - 85,000 - Mid - term View: Oscillate strongly, within the range of 70,000 - 100,000 - Reference Strategy: Adopt a long - biased approach - Core Logic: The spot price has declined recently. Supply increased year - on - year in July, and the total inventory is at a high level within the year [15]. Black and Building Materials Sector - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Intraday View: Short - term decline but limited downside space - Mid - term View: Lack of upward driving force - Reference Strategy: Continue to hold sold out - of - the - money put options on rebar, such as RB2510 - P - 2900 - Core Logic: The inflection point of raw material supply and demand has appeared, and the policy - based production restriction is less than expected. However, the explicit inventory of steel products is at the lowest level in the past 5 years, so the downside space in the next 1 - 2 weeks is expected to be limited [17][18][61]. Livestock, Animal Husbandry, and Soft Commodities Sector - Sugar - Intraday View: Run weakly - Mid - term View: Strong bottom support (also oscillate weakly in another part) [20][21][63] - Reference Strategy: Exit long positions and wait and see - Core Logic: Production and exports in Brazil decreased in July. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to continue to increase production. In China, the domestic refined sugar production has increased significantly year - on - year, and the supply is expected to be marginally looser [23][63]. - Protein Meal - Intraday View: Rapeseed meal 2601 is weaker than soybean meal 2601 - Mid - term View: Soybean meal 2601 will fluctuate sharply in August and September - Reference Strategy: Continue to hold the strategy of shorting soybean oil 2601 and going long on palm oil 2601 - Core Logic: The average yields of US corn and soybeans are expected to reach record highs. The situation of US soybean exports to China, the harvest progress of Canadian rapeseed, and relevant policies all affect the market [33][34][64]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - Crude Oil - Intraday View: There is upward space - Mid - term View: Under pressure - Reference Strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options on SC crude oil - Core Logic: OPEC + maintains the production - increase strategy in September. The supply of heavy - oil is still tight due to sanctions, but the supply from Venezuela may increase. The demand shows different trends in different regions and products, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the third - quarter end [40][41][67]. - PVC - Intraday View: Stabilize and rebound (also run weakly in another part) [42][70] - Mid - term View: Support at the bottom - Reference Strategy: Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on PVC - Core Logic: The cost of calcium carbide increases, the supply decreases due to equipment maintenance but may increase in the future. The demand is weak, and the inventory is currently accumulating but may decrease later [43][44][70].