光大期货能化商品日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC, and provides short - term price trend views for each product, mostly indicating an oscillatory trend [1][2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, oil prices declined. WTI October contract closed down $1.55 to $63.25 per barrel, a 2.39% drop; Brent October contract closed down $1.58 to $67.22 per barrel, a 2.3% drop; SC2510 closed at 486.8 yuan per barrel, down 10.9 yuan or 2.19%. Due to the US tariff increase on Indian goods, Indian refineries are expected to reduce Russian oil purchases. In October, India's Russian oil imports will be 400,000 barrels per day lower than the Q1 average, a 22% decrease. API data showed a decline in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. Domestic refined oil retail prices were lowered. The current oil price is oscillating [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE declined. Affected by US sanctions on Iran and low valuations, FU rose strongly this week. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened due to concerns about abundant arbitrage cargo supply and weak demand. High - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure will persist. Currently, FU is highly volatile and is expected to oscillate [2]. - Asphalt: In August, asphalt demand was lower than expected due to capital recovery and rainy weather. In September, demand is expected to increase in both northern and southern markets. Refineries with crude oil quotas have good profit margins, and production is expected to be stable. With a slight rebound in oil prices, the absolute price of BU has increased slightly. Attention should be paid to the actual demand fulfillment [2]. - Polyester: TA601 closed up 0.16% at 4870 yuan per ton; EG2601 closed down 0.42% at 4490 yuan per ton. PX futures rose 0.34%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant is under maintenance. Demand improvement and supply contraction bring positive support, and PX and TA still have room for growth. High ethylene glycol operating load and low port inventory are favorable for its price [4]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed mixed trends. Thailand's natural rubber exports in July increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The 13th typhoon affected production areas, and raw material prices were firm. Tire exports increased, providing demand support. The fundamentals are strong, and short - term rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. There are maintenance plans for butadiene rubber plants in September and October, and butadiene prices are expected to oscillate strongly [4][6]. - Methanol: Domestic plant maintenance has led to a short - term low in supply, which will gradually recover. Iranian plants have high operating loads, and short - term arrivals will remain high but may decrease in the long term. The MTO plant load in East China is not high, and port inventories will increase. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Polyolefins: The production profit margins of various polyolefin production methods vary. Supply will remain high, and downstream demand is currently low but is expected to improve with the approaching peak season. Overall, polyolefins are moving towards a situation of strong supply and demand, and prices will oscillate narrowly [6][7]. - PVC: The PVC market prices in different regions showed different trends on Tuesday. Domestic real estate construction is stabilizing, and demand for pipes and profiles is expected to increase. Supply remains high, exports will weaken due to Indian anti - dumping policies. PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of multiple energy and chemical products on August 27, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US plans to double the tariff on Indian goods to 50% from Wednesday, which is expected to reduce India's recent purchases of Russian oil. In October, India's Russian oil imports will be 400,000 barrels per day lower than the Q1 average [10]. - API data shows that US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories declined last week [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [12][14][16][18][20][21]. - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [25][27][31][33][36][37]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. - Inter - product Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads between different products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [57][61][59][63]. - Production Profits: There are charts showing the production profits of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [65][67]. 3.5 Team Members Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple industry awards [70]. - Du Bingqin: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, has won multiple industry awards [71]. - Di Yilin: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, has won industry - related honors [72]. - Peng Haibo: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in energy and chemical spot - futures trading [73].