光大期货金融期货日报-20250827

Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Stock Index Futures: The market showed a mixed trend with the three major indices rising and falling. Over 2,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets closed higher, and the trading volume on this day was 2.71 trillion yuan. The Fed's dovish stance led to market expectations of multiple interest rate cuts this year, benefiting the A - share market. Shanghai's adjustment of housing policies boosted the real estate and banking sectors. The implementation of the childcare subsidy system is expected to be an important way to drive inflation back up. The liquidity - driven market will continue, but funds are concentrating on index components and technology stocks, with short - term volatility increasing and long - term upward potential [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On Tuesday, Treasury bond futures closed with gains across the board. The central bank conducted 405.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 474.5 billion yuan. Although there were no significant changes in the short - term capital and fundamental aspects, market risk appetite rebounded. The dovish remarks of the Fed Chairman increased expectations of a September interest rate cut in the US and domestic monetary policy easing, leading to a rebound in the bond market. However, the strong performance of the stock market will be a short - term negative factor for the bond market, and short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate at high levels [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: The IH contract decreased by 0.71% to 2,970.8; the IF contract remained unchanged at 4,474.6; the IC contract increased by 0.10% to 6,916.4; the IM contract increased by 0.04% to 7,415.4 [3]. - Stock Indices: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index decreased by 0.67% to 2,969.8; the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.37% to 4,452.6; the CSI 500 Index increased by 0.18% to 6,964.1; the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.02% to 7,476.5 [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The TS contract decreased by 0.02% to 102.39; the TF contract increased by 0.02% to 105.56; the T contract increased by 0.04% to 108.00; the TL contract increased by 0.43% to 117.30 [3]. 3.2 Market News - On August 26, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded to Trump's expected visit to China. China adheres to the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win - win cooperation in handling Sino - US relations, hopes that the US will work together, and emphasizes the strategic leading role of head - of - state diplomacy in Sino - US relations [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the historical trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of the corresponding basis of these contracts [7][9][11]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report shows the historical trends of Treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical trends of Treasury bond spot yields, the historical trends of the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the historical trends of the inter - delivery spreads of these Treasury bond futures, and the historical trends of cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - Exchange Rates: The report provides the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and the exchange rates between major currencies such as the euro, pound, and yen against the US dollar [21][22][25][27]. 3.4 Member Introduction - The report introduces two members: Zhu Jintao, the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, and Wang Dongying, an index analyst mainly responsible for stock index futures research [28].