中辉黑色观点-20250827

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bullish [1][3][4][5] - Iron ore: Cautiously bearish [1][6] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1][7][9][10] - Coking coal: Cautiously bullish [1][11][13][14] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Cautiously bearish [1][15][16][17] Core Views - Steel: After continuous decline, it may rebound in the short term. Rebar's demand is weak, and supply-demand is marginally loose. Hot-rolled coil's fundamentals are relatively stable, with a tendency of looser supply-demand and a high coil-rebar spread that may fall later [1][3][4][5] - Iron ore: Production increases, environmental restrictions are less than expected, and ports are accumulating stocks. The market is returning to a fundamentally weak logic, and prices are oscillating weakly [1][6] - Coke: Supply and demand are relatively stable, and it may rebound in the short term due to improved profits and strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][7][9][10] - Coking coal: Supply-demand is relatively stable. Although there is a downward correction space in the medium term, it may rebound in the short term due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][11][13][14] - Ferroalloys: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and the market sentiment is falling. It is advisable to short on rebounds [1][15][16][17] Summaries by Variety Rebar - Market situation: Blast furnace profits have declined but are still positive, and hot metal production is expected to remain stable. Demand is weak, and supply-demand is marginally loose [1][4] - Operation suggestion: In the medium term, there is a risk of continued decline, but in the short term, there may be a rebound at key levels [1][5] Hot-rolled Coil - Market situation: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have all slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of production restrictions during the military parade is limited, and supply-demand is generally tending to be loose. The coil-rebar spread is at a relatively high level [1][4] - Operation suggestion: In the medium term, it will operate weakly, but in the short term, there may be a technical rebound [1][5] Iron Ore - Market situation: Hot metal production has increased again, environmental restrictions are less than expected, steel mills have completed restocking, and ports are accumulating stocks. Overseas ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the fundamentals are neutrally weak [1][6] - Operation suggestion: Cautiously bearish [1][6] Coke - Market situation: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and coke enterprise profits have improved. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and production and inventory are relatively stable. The "anti-involution" atmosphere in the market has subsided, but safety supervision expectations for coking coal have strengthened [1][9] - Operation suggestion: Cautiously bullish [1][10] Coking Coal - Market situation: Domestic production is flat month-on-month and lower than the same period last year, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly recently. Mine inventory has stopped decreasing, and the transfer to downstream has slowed down. Hot metal production is still at a high level, and raw material demand is stable. Futures prices have a premium over warehouse receipt costs, and there is a downward correction space in the medium term [1][13] - Operation suggestion: Cautiously bullish [1][14] Ferromanganese - Market situation: Supply-demand is tending to be loose, weekly production continues to increase, and the operating rate in Yunnan has reached a five-year high. Steel mills have completed restocking, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel procurement at the end of the month. Manganese ore shipments from three major countries have decreased, arrivals have slightly increased, and port inventory is basically flat [1][16] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, it is advisable to participate in short positions as the market sentiment falls and the rebound is weak [1][17] Ferrosilicon - Market situation: Weekly production continues to increase, demand has declined, and the fundamentals are tending to be loose. Enterprise inventory has decreased, and warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decline, but the overall inventory pressure is still large [1][16] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, it is advisable to short on rebounds as the market sentiment falls and the rebound is weak [1][17]