KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-08-27 05:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for Vanke A is Neutral (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company continues to face pressure on its performance, with a need to monitor shareholder support and asset revitalization progress [5][6] - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is projected to be -7.32 billion, 0.557 billion, and 1.314 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.61, 0.05, and 0.11 [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, Vanke achieved operating revenue of 105.32 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 26.2%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 11.95 billion [6] - The overall gross margin was 9.97%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margin for development and related asset management at 8.7%, up 1.46 percentage points [6] - The significant loss was primarily due to a sharp decline in the settlement scale of real estate development, with a settlement area of 5.336 million square meters, down 39.3%, and settlement revenue of 74.05 billion, down 33.7% [6] Sales and Project Development - In the first half of 2025, the company recorded a sales area of 5.389 million square meters and sales revenue of 69.11 billion, representing declines of 42.6% and 45.7% year-on-year [7] - The company acquired 6 new projects in the first half of 2025, with a total construction area of 558,000 square meters and an equity land price of approximately 1.34 billion, averaging 4,528 per square meter [7] - Through asset revitalization and new capacity, the company generated 9.52 billion in cash flow, with 5.75 billion from revitalization efforts [7] Financial Forecasts - The projected operating revenue for 2025 is 312.62 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [8] - The expected gross margin for 2025 is 16.4%, with net profit margins projected to be -2.6% [8] - The P/E ratios for 2026 and 2027 are estimated at 153.3 and 65.0 respectively [8]