国泰君安期货PP：中期震荡市

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term demand for PP has improved month - on - month, and the cost side has also rebounded significantly recently. The market has stopped falling, stabilized, and rebounded due to various unconfirmed information on the supply - side policy. In the future, as the maintenance devices gradually resume production and new supply - side production capacity expands, the supply pressure will further increase. Although the cost side still has great uncertainty and anti - deflation and anti - involution are policy directions, the short - term market is slightly stronger, but the long - term trend still faces significant pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2601 futures was 7046, with a daily decline of 0.30%. The trading volume was 183,034, and the open interest increased by 5561. The 01 - contract basis was - 136 (previous day: - 154), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 20 (previous day: - 15) [1]. - Spot Price Data: In the North China region, the spot price was 6880 - 7020 yuan/ton (previous day: 6900 - 7030); in the East China region, it was 6910 - 7050 yuan/ton (previous day: 6920 - 7050); in the South China region, it was 6870 - 7090 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day) [1]. [Spot News] - The domestic PP market was stable with a slight loosening, with some prices dropping by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The morning futures' oscillating trend provided no clear guidance for the spot market. Most upstream manufacturers' prices remained stable, and traders' costs changed little. In the afternoon, as the futures market declined, holders actively sold, and some quotes dropped slightly. Downstream buyers mainly made low - price and just - in - time purchases, and market inquiries and transactions were weaker than the previous day [2]. [Trend Intensity] - The PP trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3].