生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report's view on the pig market is that it will experience a period of oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly due to ample supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce pig weights and support pig prices to some extent. If farmers continue to reduce pig weights or keep them stable, pig prices may adjust oscillatively, which is somewhat favorable for the November contract. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Summary by Directory Market Dynamics - On August 26, there were 430 registered pig futures warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of pigs. The main pig futures contract (LH2511) added 241 lots today, with a position of about 70,300 lots. The highest price was 13,895 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,770 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,860 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of fertile sows, the supply of pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter will generally increase oscillatively in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatively. The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released, the subsequent number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase, and the demand support for pig prices is limited as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The bullish logic is that the breeding end has reduced weights, which is beneficial for the future market; the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although there will be an increase in the number of pigs for slaughter in the future, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season for pigs [2] Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the number of pigs for slaughter may increase monthly until December (without considering early or delayed slaughter by the breeding end), and it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, and this price difference is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will also weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weights and support pig prices. If the breeding end continues to reduce weights or keep the weights stable, pig prices may adjust oscillatively, which is beneficial for the November contract to some extent. Considering that the November contract has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Market Overview - On August 26, 2025, the national average pig slaughter price was 13.63 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg or 0.66% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 13.56 yuan/kg and 13.57 yuan/kg respectively, with decreases of 0.15 yuan/kg (1.09%) and 0.05 yuan/kg (0.37%). Among the futures prices, the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts all declined, with decreases ranging from 5 yuan/ton to 130 yuan/ton and decline rates from 0.04% to 0.94%. The main basis in Henan was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton or 50% from the previous day [5]