黑色商品日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black commodity market is generally volatile. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, production restrictions, and market sentiment, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price declined, with the 2510 contract closing at 3113 yuan/ton, down 0.8%. Spot prices also dropped slightly, and the inventory has been accumulating counter - seasonally since August. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - Iron ore: The main contract i2601 price fell to 776.5 yuan/ton, down 1.33%. Global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, while iron - water production increased. With multiple factors at play, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1160.5 yuan/ton, down 4.52%. The supply is affected by frequent disturbances, and the demand is slightly weakened due to the approaching parade. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Coke: The 2601 contract of coke closed at 1681 yuan/ton, down 3.17%. Coke enterprises initiated the eighth round of price increases, and the production is affected by environmental protection during the parade. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Manganese silicon: The price of the main contract oscillated weakly, closing at 5862 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The production is increasing, while the demand is stimulated limitedly. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The price of the main contract declined slightly to 5656 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by downstream production. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract spreads: Different varieties have different contract spreads and their changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 72.0 with a 14.0 change [4]. - Basis: The basis of each variety also shows different values and changes, like the 10 - contract basis of rebar being 187.0 with a 15.0 change [4]. - Spot prices: Spot prices of different varieties in different regions have different trends, for example, the Shanghai rebar price dropped by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - Profits and spreads: There are also data on profits and spreads between different varieties, such as the rebar disk profit being - 51.7 with a 19.8 change [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main contract prices: There are historical price trend charts of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 - 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [7][9][13] - Main contract basis: The charts show the historical basis trends of various black commodities, helping to understand the price differences between futures and spot [19][20] - Inter - period contract spreads: The charts display the historical spreads between different contracts of various black commodities, which is useful for analyzing price relationships between different periods [28][30] - Inter - variety contract spreads: The charts show the historical spreads between different varieties of black commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [43] - Rebar profits: There are charts showing the historical profits of rebar, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and expertise in the black commodity research field [54][55]