工业硅、多晶硅日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 26, industrial silicon showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.85%. The position decreased by 7,286 lots to 282,000 lots. The reference price of industrial silicon spot by Baichuan remained stable at 9,478 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 175 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,985 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.06%. The position increased by 677 lots to 137,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 49,000 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 2,130 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased with the rise in silicon coal prices. The shipment volume from silicon factories to traders was high, while the purchase volume from downstream was low. The upward and downward space was narrowing, and the adjustment rhythm continued. After the anti - involution, the price of polysilicon was basically under control. With the production increase in the southwest region, the social inventory and warehouse receipts continued to increase, but the industrial clearance was not actually promoted, and the pattern of separation between volume and price of polysilicon continued to expand [2]. - The market is highly focused on the anti - involution meeting recently. The relevant dynamics have an absolute driving force on the short - term market and may guide the correction of expectations and the callback range of the premium. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling at high positions. The implementation rules of the energy - saving special supervision to be launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the end of September may be updated. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions promoted by policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Industrial silicon futures closed lower on August 26, with a decrease in positions. The spot price was stable, and the premium of the lowest deliverable product expanded. Polysilicon futures also closed lower, with an increase in positions. The price of N - type recycled material rose, and the discount of the lowest deliverable product narrowed [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased, and the market supply - demand relationship was unbalanced. The anti - involution had an impact on the polysilicon market, but the industrial clearance was not effective [2]. - The market is affected by the anti - involution meeting, and policy - related production restrictions need attention [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased on August 26 compared to August 25. The prices of most spot products remained stable, but the prices of some products such as 421 silicon in some regions decreased [5]. - The current lowest deliverable product price remained unchanged, and the spot premium increased by 120 yuan/ton [5]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the inventory in some ports decreased, and the factory inventory increased [5]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased on August 26 compared to August 25. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable [5]. - The current lowest deliverable product price remained unchanged, and the spot discount decreased by 430 yuan/ton [5]. - The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased, and the factory inventory decreased [5]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable, and the prices of some products such as raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][8][11] 3.3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [15][18][20] 3.3.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and inventory changes, as well as the DMC and polysilicon weekly inventories [23][26][31] 3.3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, the weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost - profit of DMC, and the cost - profit of polysilicon [32][34][36]