海外札记：降息按下快进键

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Jackson Hole summit released unexpectedly dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant market rebound post-meeting[33] - There is a high probability of a rate cut in September, as Powell emphasized the trend of employment risks outweighing inflation risks[33] - The market's pricing for a September rate cut peaked at 100% after disappointing non-farm payroll data, later adjusting to around 75% before the meeting[19] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the dovish signals, asset prices across various categories, including stocks, bonds, and commodities, are expected to rise due to lower risk-free rates and increased risk appetite[19] - The A-share market led gains with the Sci-Tech 50 index rising by 13.3% during the period from August 16 to August 23[35] - The outlook for mid-term monetary easing remains positive, with expectations for further rate cuts in Q4 2025 and into 2026, driven by weakening inflation and economic risks[34] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Risks - The three-month moving average for non-farm payrolls has dropped to 35,000, the lowest since the pandemic began, indicating a slowdown in the job market[24] - The manufacturing PMI for August rose to 53.3, significantly above the expected 49.5, suggesting a recovery in business activity despite ongoing price pressures[41] - Risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, tariff policies, and geopolitical tensions, which could impact market sentiment and economic performance[43]