美联储独?性忧虑再现，贵?属震荡偏强

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Oscillating Strongly" [44] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the precious metals market maintained an oscillating and strengthening trend. The news of Trump firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook in the morning led to concerns about the Fed's independence, causing the US dollar to plunge briefly and driving up precious metals prices. In the afternoon, disputes over France's fiscal issues led to a decline in European stock markets, and the US dollar recovered briefly. The strong performance of the domestic equity market limited the elasticity of gold. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September remained stable, and dovish expectations are expected to continue to dominate the market [2][4] - In the medium term, the outlook for the gold trend is optimistic, but the recovery expectations brought about by the strengthening of emerging market equities may suppress its elasticity. The US labor market is on a downward trend, and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle is expected to resume in September. The Fed's shadow chairman is likely to align with the president's preferences before taking office. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, and the market may trade the risk of the Fed's independence, which will support the gold trend [4] - If the situation shifts to a combination of interest rate cuts and economic recovery, the elasticity of gold will be limited, and silver will benefit more [7] - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between $3300 and $3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between $36 and $40 [7] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Important News - Trump removed Fed Governor Cook from office, but Cook said Trump had no right to fire her and she would not resign [3] - In July, the preliminary value of US durable goods orders decreased by 2.8% month - on - month, better than the expected 4% decrease. After excluding national defense, it decreased by 2.5% month - on - month, better than the expected 3.6% decrease. After excluding transportation, it increased by 1.1% month - on - month, better than the expected 0.2% increase. After excluding aircraft and non - defense capital goods, it increased by 1.1% month - on - month, better than the expected 0.2% increase [3] - For the week ending August 22, US Redbook commercial retail sales increased by 6.5% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 5.9% [3] - In June, the US FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, worse than the expected 0.1% decrease. The S&P/CS20 - city unadjusted housing price index increased by 2.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations [3] Market Performance - On August 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.59%, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.54%, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.78% [46] - The precious metals index increased by 0.04% on August 26, 2025, 1.81% in the past 5 days, 1.41% in the past month, and 23.55% since the beginning of the year [48]