2025年7月工业企业利润点评：“反内卷”对企业利润的初步影响

Group 1: Overall Profit Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, profits of industrial enterprises totaled CNY 40,203.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%[1] - The "anti-involution" policy has begun to show its initial impact on enterprise profits, particularly affecting industrial added value and profit margins[1] - The support for profit growth from industrial production has weakened, with a shift from volume support to revenue profit margin improvement[1] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - Profit growth rates for upstream, midstream, and downstream industries in July were -12.7%, 8.2%, and -7.5% respectively, showing significant improvement in upstream and midstream sectors compared to June[2] - Upstream industries face weak terminal demand, limiting profit growth potential, while rising costs are squeezing downstream profits[2] - Private enterprises showed the most significant profit growth in July, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, compared to -6.9% for state-owned enterprises[3] Group 3: Inventory and Future Outlook - Enterprises are more inclined to reduce inventory rather than replenish it, indicating a preference for "de-stocking" in the current economic environment[3] - Risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economic situation, and fluctuations in exports[3]