特朗普再举关税大棒，基本金属冲高回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the ratings include: - Copper: Expected to be in a "震荡" (oscillation) pattern [5][6] - Alumina: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (oscillating weakly) [6] - Aluminum: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) range [8][9] - Aluminum Alloy: Expected to have short - term "震荡" (oscillation) and potential upward movement for ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 in the future [9][10] - Zinc: Expected to be "震荡偏弱" (oscillating weakly) in the medium - to - long term [13] - Lead: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) state [14][15][16] - Nickel: Expected to be "偏强" (strong) in the short term and "空头离场" (short - sellers exit) in the medium - to - long term [19] - Stainless Steel: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) range in the short term [21] - Tin: Expected to be in an "震荡" (oscillation) state, with potential increased volatility in August [22][23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - level: Recent economic data are mixed. European investor and consumer confidence indices in August are weak, but US August existing - home sales and August Euro - US manufacturing PMI flash values are better than expected. Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting have kept the US dollar weak, which has boosted base metals to some extent. However, Trump's new "tariff stick" on August 26 has cooled investors' optimism, causing base metals to rise first and then fall [1]. - Supply - demand level: The reverse invoicing problem has tightened scrap supply, which has disrupted the supply side, but the terminal demand outlook is weak. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the demand outlook is weak. Whether the inventory will start to decline again in the peak season in September remains to be observed. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling copper and zinc at high prices. In the long term, the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China still exists, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with an expectation of tightening supply - demand, which supports base metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - Copper: Powell's dovish speech has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting copper prices. The supply of copper ore and raw materials is still tight, and the risk of smelter production cuts has increased. Currently in the off - season of downstream demand, the inventory accumulation is not obvious. It is expected that copper prices will be supported in the short term due to low inventory. In the future, copper may show an oscillating pattern [5][6]. - Alumina: The smelter's operating capacity has recovered to a high level, the supply - demand balance shows an obvious surplus, and the inventory accumulation trend has expanded. The fundamentals are relatively weak. The spot price has accelerated its decline, and the futures price has significantly decreased to repair the basis. It is expected to be oscillating and under pressure in the future [6]. - Aluminum: The short - term US rate cut expectation has increased, and the US dollar index is weak. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period. The supply side has new production capacity coming on stream, and the operating capacity and utilization rate are at a high level. The demand side has an increasing expectation of improved orders as the peak season approaches, but the terminal consumption has not strengthened significantly. The inventory accumulation rhythm has been unstable. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in an oscillating range [8][9]. - Aluminum Alloy: The short - term supply - demand is weak. The cost side is strongly supported as scrap aluminum follows aluminum ingots. The supply side's off - season production has continued to decline, and some recycling aluminum plants have reduced or stopped production. The demand side is still in a strong off - season atmosphere, and downstream procurement is weak. The factory inventory has continued to decline, and the social inventory has increased. The price is expected to be in an oscillating range in the short term, and there is an expectation of an upward movement in the future for ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 [9][10]. - Zinc: The macro - level is negative due to the decline in black - series prices, although Powell's speech has put pressure on the US dollar. The short - term zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with strong production willingness. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the demand outlook is average. In the short term, zinc prices may be in a high - level oscillation, and in the medium - to - long term, they are expected to decline [13]. - Lead: The spot discount has slightly narrowed, the supply has slightly tightened due to the reduction in production by some recycling lead plants and transportation restrictions, and the demand has rebounded as some battery factories have ended their high - temperature holidays. It is expected that there will be a slight shortage of supply - demand this week, and the price will be in an oscillating state [14][15][16]. - Nickel: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may become looser after the rainy season, and the intermediate product output has recovered. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be strong due to the strong performance of the equity market, and short - sellers are expected to exit in the medium - to - long term [19]. - Stainless Steel: The nickel - iron price has rebounded, and the chromium - iron price has remained stable. The stainless - steel production has continued to decline, and the inventory pressure has been slightly relieved. It is necessary to pay attention to the realization of demand in the peak season. In the short term, it is expected to be in an oscillating range [21]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is still tight, which strongly supports the bottom of tin prices. However, the terminal demand has weakened marginally in the second half of the year, and the inventory reduction is difficult. It is expected that tin prices will be in an oscillating state, and the volatility may increase in August [22][23]. 3.2行情监测 - The report only lists the names of various metals (copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) under this section but does not provide specific monitoring content [25][39][51]. 3.3商品指数 - 综合指数: The commodity index on August 26, 2025, was 2222.35, a decrease of 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2472.77，a decrease of 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2257.74, a decrease of 0.78% [138]. - 特色指数: No specific content is provided [139]. - 板块指数: The non - ferrous metals index on August 26, 2025, was 2377.52, with a daily decline of 0.65%, a 5 - day increase of 0.40%, a 1 - month decline of 0.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.00% [140].