能源化策略日报：美国将?幅提升印度关税，原油带领化?震荡整理-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating No clear investment rating for the entire industry was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical sector as a whole continues to oscillate, and the market is awaiting the introduction of specific anti - involution measures from China's petrochemical industry. Although there might be potential policy boosts, it's unclear how much of the supply will be reduced, making it difficult for the chemical industry to embark on a unilateral, independent, and profit - expanding upward trend. Investors should generally approach the market with an oscillatory mindset, waiting for the implementation of specific anti - involution policies in China's petrochemical sector [3][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The US plans to double tariffs on all Indian imports to punish India for buying Russian oil, and India will maintain most of its Russian oil purchases in the coming weeks. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have led to a continuous shortage of fuel oil supply in Russia [2]. - The chemical market is in a wait - and - see mode for China's petrochemical anti - involution measures. The olefin industry chain has rebounded in the past two days due to South Korea's naphtha production cuts, but buyers are cautious. Crude oil and coal prices are oscillating, and the chemical industry is unlikely to have a one - sided upward trend [3]. 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Supply pressure persists, and oil prices are oscillating weakly. - Main Logic: API data shows a slight inventory draw in the US. OPEC+ supply is accelerating, US production remains high, and non - US non - OPEC+ output will increase steadily in the second half of the year. Refinery operations in China and the US may decline due to rising refined product inventories, making it difficult for oil prices to rebound. - Outlook: Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [10]. Asphalt - Viewpoint: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. - Main Logic: The short - term negative impacts of tariff hikes, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are overshadowed by the escalation of the situation. The decline in crude oil prices has dampened the bullish sentiment in the asphalt market. The supply shortage problem has been significantly alleviated, and demand remains unoptimistic. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [11]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: High - sulfur fuel oil prices rose and then fell. - Main Logic: The short - term negative impacts are overshadowed by the escalation of the situation. The geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil has increased but then faced challenges from increased warehouse receipts and falling crude oil prices. There are also factors such as changes in import tariffs and demand. - Outlook: Geopolitical upgrades have a short - term impact on prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [12]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - Main Logic: It is affected by factors such as shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It also faces supply increases and demand decreases, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation. - Outlook: It is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited high - sulfur substitution demand space. Currently, it has a low valuation and will fluctuate with crude oil [13]. PX - Viewpoint: The price was disturbed by market rumors and rose then fell. - Main Logic: There is no clear cost - side guidance. Market rumors about a large - scale PX device production cut, later proven false, caused the price to fluctuate. In the short term, the low inventory provides support for prices and processing fees. - Outlook: Oscillation, with attention to the support level of 6750 - 6800, and mid - line buying on dips is recommended [14]. PTA - Viewpoint: The supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month, and device maintenance is on schedule. - Main Logic: The cost side provides support, the supply - demand situation is good, and downstream polyester load is stable. The buying sentiment has led to increased sales, and the peak - season expectation still exists. - Outlook: Mid - line buying on dips, with support in the 4700 - 5000 range [15]. Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: In the short term, it follows market sentiment, and in the medium term, it may return to the fundamentals of inventory accumulation. - Main Logic: Positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks have weakened the support for oil prices. South Korea plans to overhaul cracking devices, and the naphtha inventory in the ARA hub is high. Although the port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, the decline rate is slowing, and there are expectations of future inventory pressure. - Outlook: In the short term, sentiment dominates, and it may be strong. In the medium term, if no further anti - involution policies are implemented, it may return to the inventory - accumulation fundamentals [17]. Styrene - Viewpoint: In the short term, it follows commodity sentiment, and with more maintenance, profits may expand. - Main Logic: The port inventory increased, causing prices to fall. However, news of capacity reduction in China and South Korea and multiple device maintenance plans have stimulated the market. Although the inventory pressure in East China restricts price increases, there are profit - expansion opportunities from September to October. - Outlook: Fundamentally, it is bearish, but short - term short - selling is against the trend due to factors such as production restrictions during the September parade and macro - policy releases [19]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Viewpoint: Low inventory provides strong price support. - Main Logic: The cost side is supportive, the macro - chemical environment is favorable, and there is a peak - season expectation. Although domestic production is increasing, imports are decreasing, and terminal demand is gradually rising, maintaining a stable upward trend in polyester plant operations and an inventory - reduction logic. - Outlook: Price oscillation, with the upper pressure at 4600, and the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage position can be exited [20]. Short Fiber - Viewpoint: It awaits cost guidance from upstream products. - Main Logic: With strong upstream performance, short - fiber prices follow the upstream. As the peak season approaches in September, there is an inventory - reduction expectation, and the processing fee is expected to have a lower - bound support, with the absolute price oscillating within a range. - Outlook: The absolute price follows raw materials and oscillates in the short term [21]. Polyester Bottle Chip - Viewpoint: Processing fees are continuously compressed, and profits are shifting upstream. - Main Logic: Upstream prices are strong, and polyester bottle - chip processing fees are passively following. With the peak season ending, there is an inventory - accumulation pressure, and processing fees are severely compressed. - Outlook: Oscillation, with the absolute price following raw materials [22]. Methanol - Viewpoint: In the near term, it focuses on the macro - environment, and in the long term, there are still overseas disturbance expectations, with the price oscillating. - Main Logic: The price oscillated downward on August 26. Some device restart expectations may affect cost transmission through freight increases. The port inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. Although the policy news has boosted the market, the actual impact on methanol is limited. Considering the high probability of overseas device shutdowns in the long term, long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts can be considered. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [25]. Urea - Viewpoint: Market news is calm, and the market is weakly consolidating. - Main Logic: The market fundamentals are stable, and the market is waiting for positive expectations. The spot price in some regions has fallen, but there is also a price - support expectation. - Outlook: Oscillation, waiting for the implementation of demand [26]. LLDPE - Viewpoint: As oil prices fall, LLDPE oscillates in the short term. - Main Logic: News of domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity reduction has stimulated the market, but the actual impact is limited. Oil prices are oscillating, and the supply pressure persists. There is still capital - game in the macro - environment, and the consumption expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" exists. The LLDPE fundamentals are under pressure, with high production and inventory. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation, with attention to the peak - season demand [30]. PP - Viewpoint: New capacity release and reduced maintenance lead to an oscillatory decline. - Main Logic: News of capacity reduction has stimulated the market, but the actual impact is limited. Oil prices are oscillating downward, and the supply pressure persists. PP supply is increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, and the start - up rate is lower than in previous years, with cautious purchasing. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [31]. PL - Viewpoint: In the short term, it follows the oscillation of PP. - Main Logic: The olefin market has been boosted by news from China and South Korea. The inventory of propylene enterprises in Shandong is controllable, and the price is stable. The downstream follows demand, and the market is affected by the macro - environment and coal - price rebounds. The processing fee between PP and PL is a key focus. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation [32]. PVC - Viewpoint: Market sentiment is boosted, and PVC is weakly stabilizing. - Main Logic: At the macro - level, there are anti - involution expectations in China and an increased probability of overseas interest - rate cuts. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. Production is decreasing due to autumn maintenance, downstream start - up is stable, export expectations are under pressure, and the cost is weakly stable. - Outlook: Wide - range oscillation, with market - sentiment improvement as the driving force and inventory accumulation as the pressure [37]. Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: The spot - price rebound has slowed, and near - month long positions should be liquidated. - Main Logic: At the macro - level, there are anti - involution expectations in China and an，