HTSC·2025-08-27 07:08Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with target prices of HKD 31.85 and RMB 32.97 [7][8] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q2 2025, with a revenue of RMB 222.40 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.74%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 25.57 billion, up 40.26% year-on-year and 41.26% quarter-on-quarter, attributed to effective cost control measures [1] - The company plans to distribute its first interim dividend of RMB 0.24 per share (tax included) [1] - The company is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure investment in the second half of 2025, alongside supply-side reforms such as staggered production and capacity management [1] Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 412.92 billion, down 9.38% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 43.68 billion, up 31.34% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit per ton of self-produced cement and clinker increased to RMB 70, an increase of RMB 18 year-on-year, primarily due to lower coal costs and proactive cost control [2] - The company’s trading volume of cement and clinker increased by 21.03% year-on-year, generating trading revenue of RMB 5.48 billion, up 16.33% year-on-year [2] Business Segments - The aggregate and concrete business showed mixed results, with aggregate revenue declining by 3.63% to RMB 21.11 billion, while concrete revenue increased by 28.86% to RMB 15.19 billion [3] - The company’s overseas business generated revenue of RMB 28.93 billion, up 14.95% year-on-year, with a notable increase in profitability from overseas operations [3] Financial Health - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of RMB 82.87 billion in the first half of 2025, an increase of RMB 14.16 billion year-on-year [4] - The company’s interest-bearing debt decreased to RMB 280.03 billion, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 20.52%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The net debt ratio is estimated to be -17.7%, indicating a strong balance sheet [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are RMB 99.5 billion, RMB 110.5 billion, and RMB 121.3 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.88, RMB 2.08, and RMB 2.29 [5] - The target price corresponds to a P/B ratio of 0.9x for 2025, which is below the historical average, reflecting potential short-term pressures in the cement supply-demand balance [5]