碳酸锂日评：波动仍大持仓注意保护-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, with high production, rising downstream demand, and destocking of social inventory. The short - term fundamentals change little, but beware of the repeated "contrarian" sentiment. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Short - term interval operations are recommended. If there is an over - decline, one can buy on dips and appropriately buy options for protection, or buy straddle options [1] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures: On August 26, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 87,580 yuan/ton, 87,600 yuan/ton, 87,540 yuan/ton, and 87,420 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 734,929 lots, and the open interest of the active contract was 414,097 lots. The inventory was 23,615 tons, an increase of 1,060 tons compared to the previous day [1] - Spot: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 800 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] 2. Lithium - Related Product Price Changes - Lithium Ore: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 978 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - Other Lithium Products: The average price of lithium hydroxide (56.5% battery - grade, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.85 US dollars/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95%, domestic) was 56,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] 3. Inventory Changes - SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The total inventory was 141,543 tons, a decrease of 713 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of smelters was 46,846 tons, a decrease of 2,847 tons; the inventory of downstream was 51,507 tons, an increase of 3,224 tons; and the inventory of other sources was 43,190 tons, a decrease of 1,090 tons [1] 4. Industry News - Guotou Xinjiang Lithium Co., Ltd. plans to invest about 800 million yuan to expand the total production capacity of lithium carbonate in its plant in Xinjiang from 500 tons to 10,000 tons. Jiwu Hi - Tech and Lanxiao Technology won the bids for the core systems in the equipment procurement of this expansion project [1] - Australian miner Galan Lithium obtained 20 million Australian dollars (equivalent to 13 million US dollars) in financing for its Hombre Muerto West (HMW) salt project in Argentina. The project is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2026 [1]