中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数收跌，焦煤、氧化铝跌幅居前-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - U.S. economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term, with monetary easing expectations supporting market risk appetite. Domestic economic fundamentals are slightly weaker on a quarterly basis, but it's still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target, and market risk appetite may also be supported. In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment, and external macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. With the approach of important events and economic slowdown pressure, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: Powell's annual meeting speech was unexpectedly dovish at the global central bank summit, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. The current fundamental expectations have weakened slightly, with consumer confidence deteriorating in August and housing construction showing mixed trends [9]. - Domestic Macro: In China, on one hand, the probability of a significant downturn in external demand has decreased, while domestic demand, such as consumption and investment, is still at a reasonable level. On the other hand, the capital market remains loose. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies [9]. - Asset View: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high sentiment until after important events, when the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September has strengthened, and the macro - monetary policy is expected to become looser. As important events approach and economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [9]. 3.2 View Highlights - Finance: The stock market is trending upwards, and the linkage between stocks and bonds is weakening. Stock index futures and options are expected to rise with fluctuations, while treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [10]. - Precious Metals: The expectation of interest rate cuts in September is expanding, which is favorable for the prices of gold and silver, and they are expected to rise with fluctuations [10]. - Shipping: Attention should be paid to the rate of decline in freight rates for the European container shipping line, which is expected to fluctuate [10]. - Black Building Materials: With the strengthening of the cost side, black building materials are rebounding from low levels. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [10]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: The weak dollar supports non - ferrous metals, but weakening demand also needs attention. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, and zinc is expected to decline with fluctuations [10]. - Energy and Chemicals: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the weakening of coking coal has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some are expected to rise or fall with fluctuations, such as PX, PTA are expected to rise with fluctuations, while crude oil is expected to decline with fluctuations [12]. - Agriculture: The agricultural product market is oscillating at high levels, waiting for field inspection results. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate, and rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to rise with fluctuations [12].