集运日报：美拟向印征收50%关税，现货运价持续下行，盘面再度下探，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] Core Views - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game in the shipping market is challenging, so it's advisable to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [3] - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, and after a brief rebound, the market is under pressure again. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - In the face of international situation turmoil, contracts maintain seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts for arbitrage strategies [3] Summary by Related Content Shipping Market Data - On August 22 - 25, shipping freight rate indices such as NCFI and SCFIS showed declines. For example, the NCFI (composite index) dropped by 1.59%, and the SCFIS (European route) fell by 8.7% [1] - On August 22, other shipping freight rate indices like SCFI and CCFI also decreased. The SCFI composite index dropped by 44.83 points, and the CCFI (European route) fell by 1.8% [1] Market Strategy - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, try to go long lightly at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the market trend and set stop - losses [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Due to international situation instability, it's recommended to wait and see or make light - position attempts [3] - Long - term strategy: Take profits when contracts rise, wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent trend [3] Market Conditions - On August 26, the main contract 2510 closed at 1318.9, with a decline of 2.76%, a trading volume of 2.58 million lots, and an open interest of 54,400 lots, an increase of 52 lots from the previous day [3] - The 2508 contract's delivery price was 2135.2 [3] Geopolitical Events - The Islamic Cooperation Organization held a special meeting to discuss Israel's aggression against Palestine and issued a joint statement opposing Israel's actions [3] - The Trump administration plans to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, which has drawn condemnation from the Indian government [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI rose to 51.1 [2] - The preliminary value of the US August manufacturing PMI was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4 [2] Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [3] - The margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [3]