Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - PVC is affected by the sentiment of the black sector and follows a downward trend. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the impact of macro and cost factors. In the long - term, supply pressure is large, demand is weak, and the chloro - alkali profit still has room for compression. However, the recent strength of coal and ethylene on the cost side needs continuous attention [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase. Supply is affected by maintenance, and demand shows signs of improvement. The cost support remains, and the chloro - alkali profit is at a medium level in the same period. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking rhythm during the peak season and the production start - up rhythm of Guangxi alumina [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4999 yuan/ton (-48), the East China basis is -259 yuan/ton (+38), and the South China basis is -159 yuan/ton (+18) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4740 yuan/ton (-10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4840 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue charcoal price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide profit is -64 yuan/ton (-25), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is -223 yuan/ton (+8), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is -592 yuan/ton (-52), and the PVC export profit is 11.2 US dollars/ton (-2.9) [1]. - Inventory and start - up: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (-2.1), the social PVC inventory is 50.8 tons (+1.5), the calcium carbide - based PVC start - up rate is 76.07% (-3.14%), the ethylene - based PVC start - up rate is 72.44% (-5.48%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.02% (-3.82%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 72.5 tons (-6.6) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2703 yuan/ton (-29), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -16 yuan/ton (+29) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 860 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1350 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1696 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 713.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 681.28 yuan/ton (+5.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1387.74 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and start - up: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 39.64 tons (-4.14), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.36 tons (+0.03), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 83.20% (-0.90%) [2]. - Downstream start - up: The alumina start - up rate is 85.78% (+0.14%), the dyeing start - up rate in East China is 63.86% (+2.40%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 86.22% (+0.18%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Maintenance increases, and the start - up rate decreases month - on - month. However, due to the support of chlor - alkali profits, the overall start - up is at a high level. With the gradual mass production of new production capacity, the long - term supply pressure is still large [3]. - Demand: The start - up of downstream products remains at a low level, and enterprises maintain just - in - time procurement. The export signing and delivery volume have increased week - on - week. Affected by the rush to export before the implementation of anti - dumping duties, the PVC export in July exceeded expectations. After India announced the new anti - dumping duties on imported PVC on August 14, the anti - dumping duties for the Chinese mainland generally increased by 46 - 52 US dollars/ton compared with the preliminary ruling on October 30, 2024. It is expected that the rush - to - export situation will continue, and the export expectation in the fourth quarter will weaken [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory continues to accumulate and is relatively high compared with the same period [3]. - Cost: Coal and ethylene on the cost side have recently strengthened, and attention should be paid to their further impact on the PVC cost [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Chlor - alkali enterprises' maintenance increases, and the start - up rate decreases month - on - month but is still at a high level in the same period. The start - up in Shandong has increased slightly and is at a high level in the same period. After the maintenance of Yantai Wanhua, the start - up may decline slightly in the future [3]. - Demand: The alumina profit is acceptable, and the start - up rate is stable month - on - month. The delivery volume of caustic soda to the main downstream alumina plants is lower than the daily consumption, and downstream manufacturers have raised the purchase price, causing the spot price to rise. The non - aluminum downstream start - up rate has increased slightly month - on - month, and the procurement is acceptable. Affected by the military parade in late August, the caustic soda transportation is restricted, and the downstream stocking sentiment has improved. With the approaching peak - season expectation, the pending orders in Shandong are acceptable, and the enterprise inventory pressure has decreased [3]. - Cost: The liquid chlorine price is weak, but the cost support remains, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level in the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. - Inter - delivery spread trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4]. - Inter - commodity spread trading: No trading strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side trading: Be cautiously bullish [5]. - Inter - delivery spread trading: Go long on the SH10 - 01 spread when the price is low [5]. - Inter - commodity spread trading: No trading strategy [5].
烧碱偏强震荡，厂家出货顺畅
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-27 07:37