新能源及有色金属日报：整体商品情绪回落，工业硅盘面回调-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Short - term interval operation for polysilicon [9][11] Report's Core View - On August 26, 2025, the industrial silicon futures market declined, mainly affected by the decline of commodities like coking coal. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate with the overall commodity sentiment. For polysilicon, the spot price rose and then stabilized, and the short - term futures market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, affected by the anti - involution policy. In the medium - to - long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [1][3][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - Futures Market: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2511 of industrial silicon futures opened at 8680 yuan/ton and closed at 8515 yuan/ton, a change of - 250 yuan/ton (- 2.85%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 281,839 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,822 lots, a change of - 116 lots from the previous day [1] - Supply Side: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on August 21 was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1] - Consumption Side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The upstream and downstream were in a deep game stage, and some enterprises showed a mentality of bottom - fishing [2] Strategy - The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate with the overall commodity sentiment. Unilateral: Neutral; No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3][4] Polysilicon Market Analysis - Futures Market: On August 26, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures opened at 51,480 yuan/ton and closed at 50,985 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.06% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 137,478 lots, and the trading volume was 265,820 lots [5] - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly polysilicon output decreased by 0.68% to 29,100 tons, and the silicon wafer output increased by 1.57% to 12.29GW [5] Strategy - The short - term polysilicon futures market is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. Short - term interval operation for unilateral trading; No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [9][11] Others - On August 25, China Resources Power's 2nd batch of photovoltaic project component procurement in 2025 had a total procurement of 3GW of N - type TOPcon double - sided double - glass photovoltaic components. The bid prices of the first - ranked candidates were between 0.7215 - 0.731 yuan/W [8]