航运日报：马士基9月第二周报价继续下修，关注其他船司跟随情况-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Maersk's quotes continued to decline in the second week of September, and attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow suit [1] - The freight rate of the October contract is mainly short - allocated, and the freight rate center continues to decline. The freight rate in October is usually 20% - 30% lower than that in August. Attention should be paid to the price - following situation of other shipping companies after Maersk's freight rate drops to $1900/FEU [5] - The seasonality of the December contract still exists, but the risk lies in the bottom of this round of freight rate decline. If ships from the US line are transferred to the European line in the fourth quarter, it may put pressure on European line prices [6][7] - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. For arbitrage, it is advisable to go short on the October contract [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Prices - As of August 26, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 79,739 lots, and the daily trading volume was 34,224 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2606, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, and EC2602 contracts were $1273.10, $1416.60, $1627.90, $1318.90, $1643.90, and $1469.30 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On August 15, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe) was $1668/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West) was $1644/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $2613/FEU. On August 18, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1990.20 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1041.38 points. The final settlement price of the August contract was 2135.28 points [4][8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In August 2025, the remaining one - week capacity from China to European base ports was 308,400 TEU. The weekly average capacity in September was 310,600 TEU, and that in October was 282,300 TEU. The capacity in September will increase, and the blank sailings of the PA alliance in September have been filled. HPL has announced two additional ships for October [4] - As of August 22, 2025, 177 container ships with a total capacity of 1.432 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 57 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 859,000 TEU) and 8 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (total 176,880 TEU) have been delivered [9] 3.4 Supply Chain - Not provided in the given content 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the given content