Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish [3] Core View - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,490 yuan/ton, a change of -19 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,552 yuan/ton, a change of +2 yuan/ton (+0.04%); the spot basis in East China was 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous day. The ethylene glycol port inventory has dropped to around 500,000 tons, and the short - term arrival is continuously low, leading to a stronger spot basis [1] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$47/ton, a +$2/ton change from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -21 yuan/ton, a +38 yuan/ton change from the previous day [1] - According to CCF's data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week; according to Longzhong's data, it was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports this week is 54,000 tons, remaining low. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2] - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and the import is expected to rise above 650,000 tons after August. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, with an increase in foreign trade shipments and the start of domestic sales stocking. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the peak operating rate is expected to be reached in late September [2] - The balance sheet from August to September shows a loose balance, with little supply - demand contradiction [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,490 yuan/ton, a change of -19 yuan/ton (-0.42%) from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 4,552 yuan/ton, a change of +2 yuan/ton (+0.04%); the spot basis in East China was 51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$47/ton, a +$2/ton change from the previous day; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -21 yuan/ton, a +38 yuan/ton change from the previous day [1] - Domestically, the ethylene glycol load has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and the import is expected to rise above 650,000 tons after August [2] International Spread - Not elaborated in the provided text Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The demand shows signs of recovery, with an increase in foreign trade shipments and the start of domestic sales stocking. The polyester load is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the peak operating rate is expected to be reached in late September [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from the previous week; according to Longzhong's data, it was 498,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 61,000 tons, and the planned arrival at the main ports this week is 54,000 tons, remaining low. The planned arrival at the secondary ports is 31,000 tons [2]
化工日报：到港偏少，EG主港库存下降至低位-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-27 07:38