特朗普推进“干预美联储”计划，商品价格波动仍剧烈

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests going long on industrial products on dips in commodities and stock index futures [3] Core Viewpoints - In July, the global economic data showed resilience. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, while the non - manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in dollar terms, higher than expected. The money supply in financial data exceeded expectations, but financing and loan data were still weak. Investment data faced significant pressure. China's single - month electricity consumption in July exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time [1] - Powell's attitude has turned dovish, clearing the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, making the path of rising overseas inflation smoother. Trump's "intervention in the Fed" plan is in progress, and commodity prices remain highly volatile. Current tariffs are in a "stagnant" stage, dragging down commodities highly affected by external demand [1][2] - The domestic supply - side is most sensitive to the black and new energy metal sectors. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. The fundamentals of the black sector are still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the non - ferrous sector's supply constraints have not been alleviated. The "anti - involution" space of some chemical products and the short - term performance of agricultural products driven by tariffs and inflation expectations are worthy of attention [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Global economic data in July showed resilience. In China, the official manufacturing PMI dropped, exports increased, money supply exceeded expectations, but investment data faced pressure. China's single - month electricity consumption in July exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours. The government emphasized measures to stabilize the real estate market, expand consumption, and invest. The total domestic ETF scale exceeded 5 trillion yuan on August 26. In the US, July's non - farm data was below expectations, but the August PMI improved [1] Policy and Tariff Information - On July 31, the White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariff" rates for some countries. On August 19, the US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Trump plans to announce semiconductor tariffs and impose about 200% tariffs on Chinese rare - earth magnets. On August 25, the US announced a 50% tariff on Indian goods starting from August 27 [2] Commodity Sector Analysis - The black and new energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the domestic supply - side. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector's fundamentals are dragged down by downstream demand, and the non - ferrous sector's supply constraints persist. The "anti - involution" of the photovoltaic and chemical industries is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by short - term tariffs and inflation expectations but need fundamental signals [2] Strategies - Go long on industrial products on dips in commodities and stock index futures [3] Important News - On August 26, it was reported that China's single - month electricity consumption in July exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours, the total domestic ETF scale exceeded 5 trillion yuan, and the market showed a volatile and differentiated trend. Trump's tariff plans and related responses, as well as the views of the Dallas Fed President on the Fed's asset - liability reduction, were also reported [5]