新能源及有色金属日报：铅价走高后，下游需求以刚需为主-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of lead are currently in a weak state, with no obvious signs of peak - season demand. The concentrate market remains tight even with smelter maintenance plans, and TC prices are continuously falling. There are no significant fundamental factors to boost lead prices, but macro - factors such as rising interest - rate cut expectations are favorable for the non - ferrous sector, limiting the downside of lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On August 26, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 33.79 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 10.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,125 yuan/ton, 10,125 yuan/ton, and 10,450 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On August 26, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 16,865 yuan/ton and closed at 16,930 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 45,181 lots, an increase of 3,979 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 50,846 lots, an increase of 22,871 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,970 yuan/ton and a low of 16,860 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract opened at 16,920 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the afternoon close [1] Regional Quotes - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. In Henan, suppliers quoted at a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or a discount of 120 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 lead contract. In Hunan, branded lead smelters quoted at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price, with one smelter quoting at a premium of 50 yuan/ton but no transactions. Some suppliers quoted at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2510 lead contract and made transactions. In Guangdong, suppliers' premium quotes were further lowered to par with the SMM1 lead price. In Yunnan, non - branded lead smelters quoted at a discount of 200 - 170 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price [2] Inventory - On August 26, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 6.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous week. As of August 26, the LME lead inventory was 271,550 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]