低价成交略有好转，尿素震荡整理

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when the price is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Recently, the impact of exports on sentiment has weakened. Manufacturers have lowered prices to attract orders, and downstream buyers are cautious. Spot prices have fallen to previous lows, and trading has improved. The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weak. The production of urea remains at a high level, and upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. Although production may decline slightly next week due to planned maintenance, future supply - demand remains loose with the release of new production capacity. Coal - based urea profits are acceptable, and cost support is average. The export of urea continues in August, and port inventory has increased slightly. The Indian NFL's urea import tender may boost the international urea market, and export dynamics need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 26, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1737 yuan/ton (- 8). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1710 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1710 yuan/ton (- 10). The basis in Shandong was - 37 yuan/ton (- 2), in Henan was - 27 yuan/ton (+ 8), and in Jiangsu was - 27 yuan/ton (- 2) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 26, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.98% (0.08%). Planned maintenance at companies like Yuntianhua, Henan Xinlianxin, and Shanxi Lu'an next week may lead to a slight decline in production, but new capacity will be released [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The urea production profit was 170 yuan/ton (- 10). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and cost support is average [1][2] 4. Urea Overseas Prices and Export Profits - The export profit was 1288 yuan/ton (+ 18). The Indian NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rates and Orders - As of August 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.84% (- 2.64%), and that of melamine was 46.60% (- 3.22%). The number of advance order days for urea enterprises was 6.06 days (- 0.23). Industrial demand is weak [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 26, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.39 million tons (+ 6.65), and the port sample inventory was 50.10 million tons (+ 3.70). Upstream inventory is still relatively high year - on - year [1]