新能源及有色金属日报：库存持续对现货贴水施压-20250827

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: A short - position variety among non - ferrous metals. [6] 2. Core View - The current macro sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities show a strong trend. However, the zinc spot market is under pressure from increasing inventory, with a slight expansion of the spot discount. The smelting profit remains high, and the supply pressure persists. The domestic inventory build - up is expected even in the consumption peak season, and if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure, while the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5] 3. Summary by Category Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is - $2.95/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 40 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,270 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 60 yuan/ton. [2] - Futures: On August 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,355 yuan/ton, closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 93,174 lots, and the open interest was 108,718 lots. The highest price was 22,395 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,245 yuan/ton. [3] - Inventory: As of August 26, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 138,500 tons, a change of 5,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 65,525 tons, a change of - 2,550 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - Macro and Spot: The current macro sentiment is positive, and non - ferrous commodities are strong. In the zinc spot market, due to continuous inventory increase, the spot discount slightly expands, and traders have difficulty maintaining prices, with weak downstream purchasing sentiment. [5] - Cost: The import TC is rising, with the general ore quote reaching $110/ton. Smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and port inventory is increasing. [5] - Smelting: With by - product revenue, the industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton. Zinc price decline has little impact on smelting profit, and smelting enthusiasm remains high, with unchanged current and expected supply - side pressure. [5] - Consumption: Even during the consumption peak season, the domestic inventory build - up is expected. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure, but the impact of overseas inventory needs attention. [5]