MILKYWAY(SH:603713) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-27 07:53Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the private hazardous chemical logistics sector, benefiting from the increasing compliance ratio in chemical logistics and the growth of China's chemical production capacity [6][10]. - The report forecasts significant growth in the third-party hazardous chemical logistics market, estimating it could reach 23,186 billion yuan by 2030, driven by increased chemical sales and market penetration [6][60]. - The company has a robust ecological layout and a significant warehousing network, with over 750,000 square meters of managed storage facilities, which is expected to expand further in the coming years [6][10]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 12,118 million yuan in 2024 to 17,685 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.9% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 565 million yuan in 2024 to 1,026 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 25.5% [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 3.45 yuan in 2024 to 6.49 yuan in 2027 [2]. Industry Overview - The global chemical market has substantial growth potential, with China's chemical sales expected to account for 48.6% of the global market by 2030 [20][27]. - The hazardous chemical logistics market in China reached 2.38 trillion yuan in 2023, with a slight year-on-year decline of 1.1%, yet the market remains robust with ongoing expansion plans from many companies [54][58]. - The report highlights the increasing regulatory scrutiny in the hazardous chemical sector, which is expected to enhance the competitive edge of leading firms [42][58]. Competitive Positioning - The company is compared with three similar A-share listed companies, with its price-to-earnings (PE) ratios being significantly lower than the average of its peers, indicating potential undervaluation [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the company's comprehensive qualifications in hazardous chemical logistics, which positions it favorably against competitors [6][10]. Digital Transformation - The report discusses the importance of digital transformation in enhancing supply chain efficiency and compliance in the hazardous chemical logistics sector, with significant potential for improving operational margins [64][67]. - The integration of digital platforms is expected to optimize the purchasing experience for B2B clients, addressing common pain points in traditional distribution channels [67][68].