新能源及有色金属日报：买卖双方拉锯，铜价再陷震荡格局-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8] Core Views - The current copper concentrate trading is relatively active, but the TC price still cannot recover continuously. The downstream and terminal performance is relatively weak, and the wait - and - see sentiment is strong. However, due to the rising market expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price remains in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper price operations, with the buying range roughly between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On August 26, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 79,600 yuan/ton and closed at 79,190 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 79,290 yuan/ton and closed at 79,420 yuan/ton, a 0.29% increase from the afternoon close [1] - Spot Situation: According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2509 contract was 80 - 180 yuan/ton, with an average of 130 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton decline from the previous day. The spot price was 79,480 - 79,690 yuan/ton. The downstream's acceptance of high copper prices is low, but holders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the downward space for spot premiums is expected to be limited [2] Important Information Summaries - Tariffs and Fed News: Trump said trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea were completed, and he will soon impose "high" tariffs on imported furniture, possibly up to 200%. Trump removed Fed理事 Lisa Cook, but Cook said Trump has no right to do so, and the Fed spokesman said the president can only remove a governor for "just cause" [3] - Mine - end News: Capstone Copper's Pinto Valley copper mine in Arizona obtained Copper Mark certification. First Quantum Mining shelved the plan to sell its minority stake in Zambian copper mines due to a $1 - billion gold deal that eased balance - sheet pressure [4] - Smelting and Import News: US metal traders are transshipping scrap copper to China through Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam to avoid China's 10% import tariff. China's direct imports of scrap copper from the US dropped sharply, but overall imports remained stable. The net long position of COMEX copper futures held by funds declined, but the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is still strong [5] - Consumption News: The domestic refined copper rod enterprise's operating rate rose 1.20 percentage points to 71.80% last week, mainly driven by the resumption of production of previously - overhauled enterprises. Downstream consumption is weak, and the overall market is lackluster. The raw material inventory decreased by 2.31% to 3.38 million tons, and the finished - product inventory decreased by 5.44% to 6.61 million tons [6] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 375 tons to 155,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 830 tons to 22,917 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 0.87 million tons to 12.30 million tons on August 25 [7] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, recommend buy - on - dips hedging with a buying range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton [8]