燃料油日报：地缘不确定性仍存，盘面震荡运行-20250827

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical uncertainty persists, and the market fluctuates. The fuel oil futures show a short - term upward trend due to the short - term strengthening of the oil market sentiment, but the upside space of oil prices is limited considering geopolitical and macro uncertainties and the expected future loosening of the crude oil balance sheet [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is in the stage of structural adjustment and market re - balancing. The supply pressure has eased, but the upward driving force is not obvious. After the peak consumption season for power generation, it will face the pressure of increased Middle East exports. The FU valuation has been repaired, but new warehouse receipts and price differentials still face resistance [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil currently has limited market pressure, with low domestic production and a tightening overseas supply trend. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity, so the upward resistance is also large [1]. - Both high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to be volatile and slightly strong in the short - term and face crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,880 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.23% at 3,529 yuan/ton [1]. - The limited progress in Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the dovish signals from Powell last week strengthened the short - term sentiment in the oil market, driving the rebound of energy - sector commodities. However, the upside space of oil prices is limited [1]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: The supply pressure has eased, but the upward driving force is not obvious. After the power - generation consumption peak season, it will face the pressure of increased Middle East exports. The FU valuation has been repaired, but 26,600 tons of new warehouse receipts were registered, and price differentials still face resistance [1]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The current market pressure is limited, with low domestic production and a tightening overseas supply trend. In the medium - term, it faces the contradiction of demand share substitution and excess capacity [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: Volatile and slightly strong in the short - term, facing crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Volatile and slightly strong in the short - term, facing crude - oil - end suppression in the medium - term [2]. - Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: No specific strategies are provided [2].