Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is cautiously bullish, while the rating for BR is neutral [5][6] Core Viewpoint - For natural rubber, due to the rainy season in major production areas, raw material output is limited and prices are expected to remain firm. After the rain stops, production may increase. In China, there is an expectation of increased arrivals at the end of August, which may lead to inventory accumulation at Qingdao Port. However, the purchasing intention of downstream tire factories before the peak season also needs attention. Overall, the supply and demand in China are expected to be strong in the later period [5] - For BR, the upstream production is stable and the inventory is relatively low year - on - year. The improvement of downstream production profit is conducive to the increase of the operating rate. The cost of BR still has support. The upstream supply is abundant and the supply is expected to increase month - on - month. The downstream demand is still in the off - season, and there is still pressure for inventory accumulation in the later period. The production of BR continues to be in a loss pattern, and the prices of upstream butadiene raw materials and surrounding natural rubber support the bottom of BR [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures Prices: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,790 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,845 yuan/ton, a change of - 165 yuan/ton [1] - Spot Prices: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, a change of + 0 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, a change of + 200 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - Thai Natural Rubber Exports: From January to July 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 919,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 227,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%; the export of latex was 431,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%. From January to July, Thailand's exports of natural rubber to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China totaled 398,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 65,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 306%; the export of latex to China totaled 157,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65% [2] - China's Natural Rubber Imports: In July 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [3] - Côte d'Ivoire's Rubber Exports: From January to July 2025, Côte d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared with the same period in 2024. Looking at the data for July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [3] - China's Rubber Tire Exports: From January to July 2025, China's exports of rubber tires reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spreads: On August 26, 2025, the RU basis was - 985 yuan/ton (- 30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,085 yuan/ton (+ 30), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,778 yuan/ton (- 160.25), the NR basis was 237.00 yuan/ton (- 72.00); the price of whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 15,050 yuan/ton (- 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 150 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,300 yuan/ton (- 250) [4] - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 63.20 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.90), the price of Thai rubber latex was 55.45 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.20), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.25), the difference between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (- 0.05) [4] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.97% (+ 2.35%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.87% (+ 2.76%) [4] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+ 7,504.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 606,203 tons (- 10,528), the RU futures inventory was 178,470 tons (- 1,460), and the NR futures inventory was 44,857 tons (- 1,612) [4] BR - Spot and Spreads: On August 26, 2025, the BR basis was - 45 yuan/ton (+ 65), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+ 100), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,850 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,700 yuan/ton (+ 0), the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,114 yuan/ton (- 138) [5] - Operating Rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 69.15% (+ 4.63%) [5] - Inventories: The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+ 420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (- 250) [5]
化工日报：下游采购谨慎，实单成交清淡-20250827
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-27 07:53