纯苯苯乙烯日报：后续苯乙烯检修增加，但同时拖累纯苯需求-20250827

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The potential reduction of 2.7 - 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity by South Korean petrochemical companies may have a greater impact on EB supply than BZ, as South Korean styrene accounts for 16% of overseas styrene capacity while South Korean cracked pure benzene accounts for only 3.5% of overseas total pure benzene capacity [3] - Pure benzene port inventory is slightly decreasing from a high level, but the absolute level remains high, and the port basis is waiting to strengthen further. Attention should be paid to the inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain and the MDI inventory pressure in the aniline downstream. The performance of the downstream during the "Golden September and Silver October" period should be monitored [3] - Styrene port inventory is continuously accumulating due to high current operating rates. However, more EB maintenance is expected in September, which may lead to destocking but will also drag down pure benzene demand, so there is limited support for the unilateral price. Attention should be paid to the performance of the downstream during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [3] Summary by Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene main contract basis: -101 yuan/ton (+15) [1] - Pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread: -40 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [1] - Styrene main contract basis: 68 yuan/ton (+23 yuan/ton) [1] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee: 159 dollars/ton (-6 dollars/ton); FOB South Korea processing fee: 143 dollars/ton (-5 dollars/ton); US - South Korea spread: 60.7 dollars/ton (+2.0 dollars/ton) [1] - Styrene non - integrated production profit: -278 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton), expected to gradually compress [1] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory: 13.80 million tons (-0.60 million tons); operating rate not mentioned [1] - Styrene East China port inventory: 179,000 tons (+17,500 tons); East China commercial inventory: 84,000 tons (+7,500 tons); operating rate: 78.5% (+0.4%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit: 198 yuan/ton (+50 yuan/ton); operating rate: 60.98% (+2.90%) [2] - PS production profit: -102 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton); operating rate: 57.50% (+1.10%) [2] - ABS production profit: -220 yuan/ton (-77 yuan/ton); operating rate: 71.10% (+0.00%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit: -1805 yuan/ton (+30); operating rate: 91.86% (-1.86%) [1] - Phenol - acetone production profit: -627 yuan/ton (+0); operating rate: 78.00% (+1.00%) [1] - Aniline production profit: -204 yuan/ton (-43); operating rate: 70.10% (-1.47%) [1] - Adipic acid production profit: -1250 yuan/ton (+27); operating rate: 65.50% (+3.80%) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards both pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - Cross - variety: Expand the EB - BZ spread on dips in the short term, as the reduction of South Korean cracking capacity has a greater impact on EB than BZ [4]