Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Glass - Attention events include glass production, glass factory inventory, and glass spot prices [6] - Supply is expected to increase, with stable production last week and potential supply pressure after glass technological transformation [7] - Demand is currently at a low level but is expected to rise during the peak season [7] - Inventory has increased due to weakening speculative demand and spot sales pressure [7] - Cost has decreased, and profit has shown mixed performance [7] - Given significant macro - disturbances, it is advisable to wait and see, with the glass index operating in the range of 1090 - 1200 - 1230 [7] 纯碱 - Attention events include alkali plant maintenance, alkali plant inventory accumulation, and glass production [8] - Supply has reached a new high, which exerts downward pressure on the market [8] - Demand for heavy alkali is expected to decline, while light alkali demand is relatively stable [8] - Inventory in alkali plants continues to accumulate due to strong supply and weak demand [8] - Cost has increased, and profit has declined [8] - Considering strong macro - disturbances, it is advisable to wait and see, with the soda ash index operating in the range of 1270 - 1390 [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Price - Mainstream market glass prices are weakly trending downward [10] Supply - Last week, float glass production was 1.107 million tons (unchanged), and the national float glass operating rate was 75.34% (unchanged). Technological transformation may end before the peak season, leading to potential supply pressure [15] Demand - In July, the rising futures price drove mid - and downstream replenishment, which is now nearly over. Speculative sentiment has weakened, and spot prices have been falling. Current downstream demand is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. With the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to increase. On July 31, the order days of downstream deep - processing plants were 9.55 days (+0.25). Last week, the weekly apparent demand for float glass was 22.1605 million weight boxes (+1.399 million) [19] Inventory - Speculative demand has weakened, and spot - futures traders have sold off, squeezing glass factory sales and production, resulting in increased inventory. Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.606 million weight boxes (+180,000), and the inventory in Hubei factories was 6.36 million weight boxes (-20,000) [23] Cost and Profit - Last week, glass cost decreased, and profit showed mixed performance. The weekly average cost of float glass using natural gas as fuel was 1411 yuan/ton (-18 yuan); using coal - made gas was 1011 yuan/ton (-12 yuan); using petroleum coke was 1046 yuan/ton (-22 yuan) [34] Basis and Calendar Spread - As of August 22, the basis of glass 01 was - 173, glass 05 was - 269, and glass 09 was 3. The basis has a weak driving force on the market. The spread between glass 9 - 1 contracts was - 176, and between 1 - 5 contracts was - 96. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities [43][47] Soda Ash Price - The prices of light and heavy soda ash in the mainstream market are fluctuating weakly downward [50] Supply - Soda ash production has rebounded month - on - month, reaching a new weekly high, which has a certain downward driving force on the market. Last week, soda ash production was 771,400 tons (+10,100), including light soda ash production of 346,200 tons (+14,600) and heavy soda ash production of 425,200 tons (-4,500) [56] Demand - There is an expectation of reduced production in photovoltaic glass and an expected increase in float glass production. Overall, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to decline, while the demand for light soda ash is relatively stable. Last week, the daily production of float and photovoltaic glass was 247,755 tons. The apparent demand for soda ash increased month - on - month, reaching 754,400 tons (+21,800) last week [62] Inventory - With increasing supply and decreasing demand, the inventory in alkali plants continues to accumulate. Last week, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.9108 million tons (+17,000), including light soda ash inventory of 773,100 tons (+13,100) and heavy soda ash inventory of 1.1377 million tons (+3,900) [69] Profit and Cost - According to Steel Union data, last week, the cost of soda ash increased, and profit declined. Currently, the cost support for heavy soda ash by the joint - alkali method in the East China region is around 1260 yuan [75] Basis, Calendar Spread, and Price Spread - As of August 22, the basis of soda ash 01 contracts was - 100, 05 contracts was - 152, and 09 contracts was 0. The basis has a weak driving force, and it is advisable to wait and see. The spread between soda ash 9 - 1 contracts was - 100, and between 1 - 5 contracts was - 53. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities. The price spread between glass and soda ash 01 contracts was - 153, 05 contracts was - 110, and 09 contracts was - 229. It is advisable to wait and see regarding the glass - soda ash price spread [82][86][91]
玻璃纯碱周报:玻璃厂库存环比增加纯碱产量破新高-20250827
Mai Ke Qi Huo·2025-08-27 08:25