Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 08:50Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the domestic market, the continuous auction of imported corn in the main producing areas and the listing of spring corn have increased supply. Trade entities are less willing to hold prices and more eager to clear inventories. With weak downstream demand, the market's confidence in price increases has diminished, and corn prices are gradually bottoming out. The corn market remains in a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [2]. - Corn Starch: As previously shut - down enterprises resume operations, supply pressure has increased. With downstream demand in the off - season and poor sales, the supply of corn starch far exceeds demand. Corn starch inventory has increased, and the market remains in a weak trend, suggesting a bearish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active futures contract is 2164 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 70 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 1019003 lots, up 14990 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 105472 lots, up 8639 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 84226 lots, down 5844 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 281 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active futures contract is 2471 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 44 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 225322 lots, up 14600 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28973 lots, down 2352 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 7450 lots, unchanged [2]. - CBOT Corn: The closing price is 409.25 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents; the total open interest is 1566367 contracts, up 16491 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 105210 contracts, up 27964 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2365.69 yuan/ton, down 2.06 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1918.54 yuan/ton, down 1.3 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 201.69 yuan/ton, down 8.06 yuan [2]. - Corn Starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2660 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Shijiazhuang is 2830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 336 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan [2]. - Substitute Products: The average spot price of wheat is 2430.11 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 157 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 38 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production Forecast: The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Sowing Area Forecast: The predicted sowing area of corn in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports is 67.1 million tons, down 8 million tons; at northern ports is 203 million tons, down 44 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 314.7 million tons, down 25.5 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 thousand tons, down 13.28 thousand tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed: The sample feed corn inventory days are 28.85 days, down 0.76 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 113.62 million tons, down 0.44 million tons [2]. - Corn Starch Processing: The processing profit in Shandong is - 94 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; in Hebei is - 77 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 43.57%, up 1.57%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.01%, down 1.29% [2]. Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.77%, down 0.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.18%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.89%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.89%, up 0.11% [2]. Industry News - Ukraine: As of August 25, 2025/26 (starting from July), Ukraine's grain exports were 353 million tons, higher than 298.3 million tons a week ago but lower than 675 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - US: In 18 states accounting for 92% of the national corn sowing area, as of August 24, the proportion of corn in the dough stage was 83%, up from 72% a week ago, the same as 83% last year. Pro Farmer's final yield forecast shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast [2]. Key Points to Watch The weekly corn consumption data and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises released by Mysteel on Thursday and Friday should be closely monitored [3].