Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-27 08:50Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. The price is supported by cost and policy, but the upside space is limited by downstream acceptance, and it will likely continue to show a volatile trend. The demand for industrial silicon is steadily declining, but the supply is also decreasing, and the overall situation remains volatile. Today, polysilicon fell following the trend of coking coal. Attention should be paid to whether it will break through the support level. Short - term investors can buy on dips, and stop - loss if it breaks through [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon was 48,690 yuan/ton, down 2,295 yuan; the position of the main contract was 154,537 lots, up 17,059 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon was - 2,390 yuan, down 10 yuan; the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 40,165 yuan/ton, down 2,305 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 49,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 1,985 yuan/ton, up 595 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, re - feeding, and re - compounding materials were 30, 36, 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon was 8,525 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the export volume was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons. The monthly output was 333,200 tons, up 8,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.46 US dollars/kg, up 0.16 US dollars; the monthly import average price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2]. Industry News - From January to July, the cumulative social electricity consumption was 5863.3 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. Among them, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5470.3 billion kWh. The electricity consumption of the primary, secondary, tertiary industries and urban and rural residents increased by 10.8%, 2.8%, 7.8% and 7.6% respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 105,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,170 tons, up 57 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The price of silicon wafers was stable, and some enterprises raised prices, but downstream buyers were hesitant. The weak terminal demand gradually emerged. Although the quotes of the photovoltaic industry chain increased, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged, and the terminal transaction pressure was high, which restricted the demand for polysilicon [2]. Key Points to Watch - There was no news today [2].