瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs. The production profit of steel mills has improved notably. Due to the rise in steel prices and the relatively weak increase in raw material costs, it is expected that the steel mill output will increase in August. At the demand - end, as the traditional off - season for downstream consumption is coming to an end, there is an optimistic expectation for the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Coupled with the favorable domestic fiscal investment policies, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market's purchasing willingness has recovered, and the previously积压 orders have been released. Meanwhile, the willingness of inventory holders to sell is high, the domestic market maintains a de - stocking trend, and the spot premium remains stable. Technically, with the decline in positions and the rise in prices, the bullish sentiment is strong, and attention should be paid to the MA10 resistance. It is recommended to wait and see or take short - term and light - position long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,850 yuan/ton, with a 10 - yuan increase. The price difference between the October - November contracts is - 70 yuan/ton, unchanged. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 11,213 lots, a decrease of 2,771 lots. The position of the main contract is 128,304 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 100,851 tons, a decrease of 175 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 445 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel output is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, an increase of 21,018.74 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 835,900 tons, a decrease of 205,500 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 123,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 945 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 590,100 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 24,700 units, a decrease of 2,100 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 19,800 units, a decrease of 1,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, unchanged [2] 3.6 Industry News - Trump's "three - step plan" to control the Federal Reserve is in progress; the State Council's "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan focuses on AI chips and software ecosystems and promotes the development of intelligent vehicles. On the raw material side, Indonesia's PNBP policy restricts the supply of nickel resources, increasing costs, but its ferronickel production capacity is accelerating and output is rising [2]