瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat. The organic silicon market is weak, with a significant decline in profits and a drop in the operating rate, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. The polysilicon industry is expected to see a significant increase in production in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. However, the limited price increase in downstream sectors and the expected long - term contraction in photovoltaic industry demand may restrict the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. The overall inventory of aluminum alloy continues to rise significantly, but the price has increased, and the demand for industrial silicon remains stable. The decline of industrial silicon today is less than that of polysilicon, and there is a possibility of a supplementary decline later. If the price later falls below 8,200 yuan, it is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long - position layout at low prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,525 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main contract is 275,558 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,281 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 79,670 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 5,009 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 50,822 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 116 lots; the price difference between industrial silicon in September and October is - 30 yuan, with a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,550 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the Si main contract is 775 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the spot price of DMC is 11,100 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 333,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no week - on - week change; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, with no week - on - week change; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,908.89 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 72.71%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.34 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.536 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to July, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 5.8633 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%, among which the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.4703 trillion kWh. In terms of electricity consumption by industry, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 84.7 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%; the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 3.7403 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%; the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 1.1251 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 913.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2]. 3.7 Supply - side Situation - In the southwest region, as the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage becomes more obvious, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places is increasing, and it is expected that the output of industrial silicon in the southwest region will increase week - on - week. Some previously shut - down silicon plants in Sichuan have recently restarted production, and the production capacity is gradually being released. In Xinjiang, some large - scale plants maintain a stable production rhythm, but small and medium - sized silicon plants are still not very enthusiastic about resuming production due to cost and market price factors, and the overall output remains stable. However, if the market price fluctuates significantly in the future, large - scale plants may also adjust their production plans [2]. 3.8 Demand - side Situation - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon and aluminum alloy fields. The organic silicon market is weak, with a significant decline in profits and a drop in the operating rate, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. The polysilicon industry is expected to see a significant increase in production in August, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. Polysilicon enterprises have raised prices strongly due to the "anti - involution" policy, and the enthusiasm for starting work has increased. However, the limited price increase in downstream sectors and the expected long - term contraction in photovoltaic industry demand may restrict the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, the overall inventory continues to rise significantly, but the price has increased, and the overall demand for industrial silicon remains stable. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2].