瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250827

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will generally face downward pressure, but there may be variables due to anti - involution speculation. It is expected that the probability of speculation on supply cuts will increase, and short - term long positions on the soda ash main contract are recommended [2]. - For glass, the current supply and demand situation is not optimistic. Although the de - stocking trend remains unchanged and there is a possibility of a replenishment market, short - term long positions have limited opportunities, and long positions on the glass main contract are also recommended to be established on dips [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1307 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1175 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 132 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest: 1,400,264 lots, up 550 lots; glass main contract open interest: 1,193,728 lots, down 3041 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position: - 313,904 lots, up 11,584 lots; glass top 20 net position: - 245,653 lots, down 10,925 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 9178 tons, down 135 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2099 tons, up 456 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 111 yuan, unchanged; glass September - January contract spread: - 189 yuan, up 3 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 91 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; glass basis: - 111 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash: 1325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1260 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; Central China light soda ash: 1215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass large board: 1064 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large board: 1090 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 88.48%, up 1.16 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production production lines: 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 63.606 million heavy cases, up 180,000 heavy cases [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative value of new real estate construction area: 35.206 million square meters, up 4.84168 million square meters; cumulative value of real estate completion area: 25.034 million square meters, up 2.46739 million square meters [2]. Industry News - The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", requiring the acceleration of 6 key "Artificial Intelligence +" actions [2]. - For soda ash, domestic operating rate and production have increased. Due to a slight profit recovery, maintenance is still less than expected, but the profit recovery is not sustainable. Supply is currently ample, and the market will follow the guidance of the anti - involution meeting, with natural alkali methods gradually replacing outdated production capacity [2]. - For glass, the number of cold - repaired production lines remains unchanged, production is stable, and overall production is at a low level with obvious signs of rigid - demand production, and profits are declining [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash production is expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term supply is still ample. Demand from the glass industry is weak, and domestic soda ash enterprise inventory has increased due to insufficient demand. The de - stocking process will be volatile [2]. - Glass production is at a low level, and the real - estate situation affects demand. Although the de - stocking trend remains, short - term performance is not optimistic [2].